Plaster Sports ComplexConference gameClosing line: MOST -2.5 · LT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 42 |
| MOST | 0 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 30 |
Team stats
LTthis game · better side highlightedMOST
475
Total yards
41687
Passing yards
294388
Rushing yards
12220
First downs
218-13 · 62%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MOST 1366
LT 1407
Projected spread
MOST -0.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
MOST
52% to win
Market spread
MOST -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
MOST · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1366, LT Elo 1407) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST -0.8 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MOST (top)LT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. LT pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge MOST.
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
LT 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 5/10 scoring drives
MOSTPUNT7 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q1
LTTD1 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
MOSTPUNT12 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LT up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
LT went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri State?
Louisiana Tech 42, Missouri State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MOST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.