Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsMOST
- Q4 3:44LTTrey Kukuk 58 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)42–30
- Q4 6:44MOSTRamone Green Jr. 12 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)35–30
- Q4 9:15LTDevin Gandy 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)35–23
- Q4 9:30MOSTJeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q4 14:12LTTrey Kukuk 2 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)28–17
- Q3 7:25MOSTShomari Lawrence 56 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–17
- Q3 8:18LTTrey Kukuk 2 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:09MOSTJmariyae Robinson 23 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–10
- Q2 6:36MOSTYousef Obeid 42 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 13:54LTAndrew Burnette 1 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:43LTAndrew Burnette 98 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassTrey Kukuk 8/13, 87 YDS
- RushTrey Kukuk 16 CAR, 172 YDS, 3 TD
- RecClay Thevenin 4 REC, 60 YDS
- PassJacob Clark 17/31, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushShomari Lawrence 13 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeron Askren 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:15LT +24%
Y. Obeid kickoff for 58 yds, D. Gandy returns for 93 yds for a TD (K. Kent KICK)
- Q1 10:58MOST +23%
#25 S.McDonald punt 33 yards to the LTU02
- Q4 9:30MOST +23%
Jeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q3 7:25MOST +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 56 yards gain to the LTU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 8:18LT +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Kukuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 6:44MOST +21%
R. Green Jr. run for 12 yds, for a TD (Y. Obeid KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Missouri State?
Louisiana Tech 42, Missouri State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MOST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 475 | Total yards | 416 |
| 87 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 388 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 8/13 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 7.6 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-96 | Penalties | 5-33 |
| 33:50 | Possession | 26:10 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:48 MOST go for it on 4th & 19 at MOST 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:44LTTrey Kukuk 58 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)42–30
- Q4 6:44MOSTRamone Green Jr. 12 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)35–30
- Q4 9:15LTDevin Gandy 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)35–23
- Q4 9:30MOSTJeron Askren 75 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q4 14:12LTTrey Kukuk 2 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)28–17
- Q3 7:25MOSTShomari Lawrence 56 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)21–17
- Q3 8:18LTTrey Kukuk 2 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:09MOSTJmariyae Robinson 23 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–10
- Q2 6:36MOSTYousef Obeid 42 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 13:54LTAndrew Burnette 1 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:43LTAndrew Burnette 98 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1366, LT Elo 1407 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -0.8 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2 (#70) | CORE overall | -9.3 (#92) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.08 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.61 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →