| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| ODU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1530, LIB Elo 1442) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -5.9 (67% to win) — 8.6 points of value on LIB versus the market line of -14.5.
ODU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Liberty 7, Old Dominion 21.
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
Colton Joseph run for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 8 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by LIB Dexter Ricks Jr.
Trequan Jones run for 9 yds to the LIB 25 Trequan Jones fumbled, recovered by LIB Brylan Green
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