Liberty vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsODU
- Q4 13:17ODUJa'Cory Thomas 55 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–21
- Q3 9:11LIBJulian Gray 4 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–14
- Q2 4:01ODUJa'Cory Thomas 31 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–14
- Q2 7:34ODUTJ Johnson 22 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 4.1
- PassMichael Merdinger 6/11, 77 YDS
- RushCaden Williams 19 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 1 REC, 53 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 18/26, 271 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrequan Jones 16 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecJa'Cory Thomas 5 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:34ODU +20%
PENALTY LU Offside (Harmon,Damond) 2 yards from LU 03 to LU 01. NO PLAY
- Q3 9:11LIB +13%
Julian Gray run for 4 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
- Q2 4:01ODU +11%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 31 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
- Q4 13:17ODU +9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 55 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
- Q4 13:57ODU +7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ja'Cory Thomas for 1 yd to the ODU 45
- Q3 3:46ODU +6%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Old Dominion?
Liberty 7, Old Dominion 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| LIB | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 210 | Total yards | 489 |
| 77 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 11 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/12 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-70 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 28:33 | Possession | 31:27 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:43 ODU punt on 4th & 1 at LIB 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.76 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:17ODUJa'Cory Thomas 55 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–21
- Q3 9:11LIBJulian Gray 4 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–14
- Q2 4:01ODUJa'Cory Thomas 31 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–14
- Q2 7:34ODUTJ Johnson 22 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1530, LIB Elo 1442 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -5.9 (66% to win) — 8.6 points clear of LIB's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#88) | CORE overall | +18.9 (#17) |
| +2 / +9 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 1.52 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →