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Liberty vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 6, 4:00 PM
AmFirst StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| JXST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JXST 1634
LIB 1502
Projected spread
JXST -7.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
72% to win
Market spread
JXST +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
14.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
72%
JXST · market 33%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1634, LIB Elo 1502) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -7.7 (72% to win) — 14.2 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JXST (top)LIB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
LIB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedJXST
Offense
0.17
PPA / play
0.1844%
Success rate
44%1.20
Explosiveness
1.253.68
Pts / opportunity
3.7373%
Power success
68%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.1642%
Success rate allowed
42%1.30
Explosiveness allowed
1.3113%
Havoc rate
17%18%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge LIB.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
LIB 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 6/11 scoring drives
JXSTPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1
LIBFUM2 pl, 8 yds· own 37Q1
JXSTTD4 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1
LIBPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 5Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 48Q1
LIBTD5 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 22Q1
LIBINT5 pl, 27 yds· own 28Q1
JXSTTD6 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2
LIBDOWNS9 pl, 31 yds· own 35Q2
JXSTFG11 pl, 33 yds· own 34Q2
LIBFG11 pl, 69 yds· own 13Q2
LIBPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
JXSTTD8 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
LIBMISS14 pl, 70 yds· own 21Q3
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q3
LIBTD3 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4
JXSTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
LIBTD3 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
JXSTFG7 pl, 58 yds· own 35Q4
LIBDOWNS7 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q4
JXSTEND4 pl, 8 yds· own 43Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
JXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Jacksonville State?
Liberty 24, Jacksonville State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.