Liberty vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsJXST
- Q4 4:08JXSTGarrison Rippa 24 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 7:16LIBDonte Lee Jr. 62 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Brayden Beck Kick)24–31
- Q4 8:33JXSTGavin Wimsatt 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–31
- Q4 12:47LIBEvan Dickens 52 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)17–24
- Q3 7:13JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 3:08JXSTGarrison Rippa 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 12:35JXSTCam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:09LIBJulian Gray 72 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:58JXSTAndrew Paul 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassEthan Vasko 19/29, 335 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushEvan Dickens 13 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 2 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGavin Wimsatt 6/12, 52 YDS
- RushCam Cook 29 CAR, 195 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaleb Coombs 2 REC, 24 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:35JXST +16%
Cam Cook run for 11 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q1 4:09LIB +16%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 72 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
- Q1 9:58JXST +14%
Andrew Paul run for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q4 12:47LIB +13%
Evan Dickens run for 52 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
- Q4 4:08JXST +12%
Garrison Rippa 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:13JXST +11%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Jacksonville State?
Liberty 24, Jacksonville State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| LIB | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 534 | Total yards | 390 |
| 335 | Passing yards | 52 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 338 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 6/12 |
| 11.6 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 29:36 | Possession | 30:24 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:02 LIB punt on 4th & 2 at LIB 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:08JXSTGarrison Rippa 24 Yd Field Goal 24–34
- Q4 7:16LIBDonte Lee Jr. 62 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Brayden Beck Kick)24–31
- Q4 8:33JXSTGavin Wimsatt 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–31
- Q4 12:47LIBEvan Dickens 52 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)17–24
- Q3 7:13JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 35 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 3:08JXSTGarrison Rippa 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 12:35JXSTCam Cook 11 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:09LIBJulian Gray 72 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:58JXSTAndrew Paul 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1634, LIB Elo 1502 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -7.7 (71% to win) — 14.2 points clear of JXST's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#88) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| +2 / +9 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →