Pitbull StadiumConference gameClosing line: LIB +-3 · FIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 27 |
| FIU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
Team stats
LIBthis game · better side highlightedFIU
378
Total yards
375218
Passing yards
206160
Rushing yards
16925
First downs
22Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1306
LIB 1488
Projected spread
FIU +4.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
64% to win
Market spread
FIU +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
FIU · market 44%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1306, LIB Elo 1488) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU +4.9 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FIU (top)LIB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. LIB rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge LIB.
Drive-by-drive
LIB 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 6/9 scoring drives
FIUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
LIBTD11 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
LIBTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FIU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
FIU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Florida International?
Liberty 27, Florida International 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.