Sat, Nov 15, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 27 |
| FIU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1306, LIB Elo 1488) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU +4.9 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
FIU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Liberty 27, Florida International 34.
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 4th quarter.
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass intercepted by #27 M.Clark at FIU00 QB hurried by #44 K.Davis, Touchback
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete deep left to #9 D.Lee Jr. caught at FIU40, for 29 yards to the FIU31 (#23 J.McGrew), 1ST DOWN
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