Liberty vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsFIU
- OT 0:00FIUMaguire Anderson 7 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)44–54
- Q4 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 48 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 2:48LIBJay Billingsley 38 Yd Field Goal 44–47
- Q4 13:25FIUNoah Grant 40 Yd Field Goal 41–47
- Q3 9:32FIUAlex Perry 8 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)41–44
- Q2 1:49FIUNoah Grant 39 Yd Field Goal 41–37
- Q2 6:54LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)41–34
- Q2 10:47FIUKejon Owens 9 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)34–34
- Q2 14:56LIBVaughn Blue 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)34–27
- Q1 4:55FIUJoe Pesansky 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:44LIBDonte Lee Jr. 15 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassEthan Vasko 17/31, 218 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushEvan Dickens 28 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoe Pesansky 24/34, 206 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKejon Owens 18 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Perry 8 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00LIB +66%
Jay Billingsley 48 Yd Field Goal
- OT 0:00FIU +58%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky rush right for 0 yards to the LIB25, out of bounds at LIB25
- Q4 2:15FIU +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Pesansky pass complete deep left to #18 J.Stone caught at FIU47, for 26 yards to the LIB49 (#33 A.Vaughan), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:40LIB +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FIU29 (#11 D.Farrar)
- Q4 7:45LIB +16%
PENALTY FIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from LIB39 to FIU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q1 4:48FIU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 5 yards gain to the LIB40 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Florida International?
Liberty 27, Florida International 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 375 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 160 | Rushing yards | 169 |
| 25 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 29:49 | Possession | 30:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:01 LIB go for it on 4th & 22 at FIU 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00FIUMaguire Anderson 7 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)44–54
- Q4 0:00LIBJay Billingsley 48 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 2:48LIBJay Billingsley 38 Yd Field Goal 44–47
- Q4 13:25FIUNoah Grant 40 Yd Field Goal 41–47
- Q3 9:32FIUAlex Perry 8 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)41–44
- Q2 1:49FIUNoah Grant 39 Yd Field Goal 41–37
- Q2 6:54LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)41–34
- Q2 10:47FIUKejon Owens 9 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)34–34
- Q2 14:56LIBVaughn Blue 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)34–27
- Q1 4:55FIUJoe Pesansky 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:44LIBDonte Lee Jr. 15 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1306, LIB Elo 1488 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +4.9 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LIB | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#88) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#109) |
| +2 / +9 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →