Kentucky vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsSC
- Q4 12:14SCMatt Fuller 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)13–35
- Q3 0:34UKJacob Kauwe 42 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 1:07SCRahsul Faison 6 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)10–28
- Q2 10:43SCGerald Kilgore 45 Yd Interception Return (William Joyce Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:28SCJatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:58UKJacob Kauwe 27 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:48SCRahsul Faison 12 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:27UKSeth McGowan 20 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCutter Boley 10/19, 124 YDS, 2 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 17 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWillie Rodriguez 2 REC, 66 YDS
- PassLaNorris Sellers 11/14, 153 YDS
- RushLaNorris Sellers 14 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecVandrevius Jacobs 5 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:28SC +20%
Jatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)
- Q1 5:48SC +19%
Rahsul Faison run for 12 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q1 11:27UK +18%
Seth McGowan run for 20 yds for a TD
- Q2 10:43SC +15%
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Gerald Kilgore return for 45 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q1 0:58UK +11%
Jacob Kauwe 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 1:07SC +7%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds for a TD Kentucky Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Kahlil Saunders) to the UK 0 (William Joyce KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. South Carolina?
Kentucky 13, South Carolina 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
| UK | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 232 | Total yards | 341 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 14 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 10/19 | Comp/Att | 12/15 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-36 | Penalties | 5-65 |
| 28:57 | Possession | 31:03 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:04 SC go for it on 4th & 12 at SC 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:14SCMatt Fuller 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)13–35
- Q3 0:34UKJacob Kauwe 42 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q2 1:07SCRahsul Faison 6 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)10–28
- Q2 10:43SCGerald Kilgore 45 Yd Interception Return (William Joyce Kick)10–21
- Q2 11:28SCJatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:58UKJacob Kauwe 27 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:48SCRahsul Faison 12 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:27UKSeth McGowan 20 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1638, UK Elo 1557 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC -5.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Carolina leads 22–14–1 · South Carolina has won 4 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| UK | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#52) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →