Williams-Brice StadiumConference gameClosing line: SC -5.5 · SC covered
Sat, Sep 27, 11:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| SC | 7 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1638, UK Elo 1557) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC -5.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
SC up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kentucky 13, South Carolina 35.
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jatius Geer 41 Yd Fumble Return (William Joyce Kick)
Cutter Boley pass intercepted Gerald Kilgore return for 45 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 53 yds to the SC 23 for a 1ST down
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