Scheumann StadiumConference gameClosing line: BALL -3 · BALL covered
Thu, Nov 6, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| BALL | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BALL Elo 1047, KENT Elo 945) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL -6.5 (68% to win) — 3.5 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -3.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kent State 13, Ball State 17.
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BALL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at KSU35, for 42 yards to the BSU26 (#15 D.Fields), 1ST DOWN
(01:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)
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