Kent State vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsBALL
- Q4 1:53BALLKameron Anthony 29 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)13–17
- Q4 11:07KENTWill Hryszko 28 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 4:42KENTDonovan Delaney Jr. 4 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:18KENTWill Hryszko 39 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:31BALLTJ Horton 1 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:59BALLDC Pippin 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDru DeShields 15/27, 212 YDS
- RushGavin Garcia 12 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecWayne Harris 5 REC, 87 YDS
- PassKiael Kelly 17/29, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKiael Kelly 21 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecKam Anthony 2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:53BALL +64%
Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:42KENT +26%
Shotgun #25 D.Delaney Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:38BALL +24%
Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 0 yards to the KSU37 (#5 T.Aden; #10 C.Williams)
- Q4 5:03KENT +23%
Shotgun #27 J.Nubin rush right for 2 yards loss to the KSU30 (#21 J.Stemler; #44 N.Voorhis)
- Q4 11:07KENT +18%
#47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
- Q4 10:07KENT +16%
Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 11 yards gain to the BSU49 (#22 J.Beebe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Ball State?
Kent State 13, Ball State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
| KENT | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 238 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 14 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-78 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 27:42 | Possession | 32:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:40 KENT go for it on 4th & 8 at BALL 9. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.59 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53BALLKameron Anthony 29 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)13–17
- Q4 11:07KENTWill Hryszko 28 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q3 4:42KENTDonovan Delaney Jr. 4 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:18KENTWill Hryszko 39 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 13:31BALLTJ Horton 1 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:59BALLDC Pippin 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1047, KENT Elo 945 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL -6.5 (68% to win) — 3.5 points clear of BALL's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 25–8 · Ball State has won 4 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| KENT | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.8 (#125) | CORE overall | -27.9 (#133) |
| -5 / +14 | offense / defense | -22 / +6 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 2.87 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →