| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| AKR | 3 | 14 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AKR Elo 1114, KENT Elo 945) plus home-field advantage. That projects AKR -9.2 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
KENT up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kent State 42, Akron 35.
No — the model picked AKR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had AKR pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete deep left to #30 D.Clark caught at KENT40, for 89 yards to the AKRON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:50, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 D.DeShields pass complete short left to #21 C.Wolford caught at AKRON42, for 43 yards to the AKRON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:52, 1ST DOWN #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Finley pass complete deep right to #2 M.Williams caught at KENT04, for 30 yards to the KENT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:10, 1ST DOWN #47 M.Schramm kick attempt good (H: #34 B.Johnson, LS: #30 J.Dennis)
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