Brooks Stadium (SC)Neutral siteClosing line: WMU -3.5 · WMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| WMU | 27 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 41 |
Team stats
KENNthis game · better side highlightedWMU
378
Total yards
423209
Passing yards
120169
Rushing yards
30318
First downs
184-14 · 29%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1442
KENN 1414
Projected spread
WMU -1.1
neutral site
Model pick
WMU
53% to win
Market spread
WMU -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KENN
2.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
53%
WMU · market 61%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1442, KENN Elo 1414) on a neutral field. That projects WMU -1.1 (53% to win) — 2.4 points of value on KENN versus the market line of -3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)KENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge KENN.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge KENN.
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. WMU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge KENN.
Drive-by-drive
KENN 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 4/12 scoring drives
WMUTD1 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
KENNTD4 pl, 13 yds· own 34Q1
KENNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan?
Kennesaw State 6, Western Michigan 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.