Fri, Dec 19, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| WMU | 27 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1442, KENN Elo 1414) on a neutral field. That projects WMU -1.1 (53% to win) — 2.4 points of value on KENN versus the market line of -3.5.
WMU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kennesaw State 6, Western Michigan 41.
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Joey Pope 75 Yd Interception Return (Palmer Domschke Kick)
Kershawn Fisher 47 Yd Fumble Return (Palmer Domschke Kick)
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete deep right to #15 J.Rogers caught at WMU46, for 82 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:10, 1ST DOWN. #18 C.Coppock injured on the play #27 B.Williams kick attempt failed (H: #91 J.Huiet, LS: #43 B.Blanton)
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