Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsNMSU
- Q4 5:28NMSUDonovan Faupel 2 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–21
- Q4 10:35NMSUDonovan Faupel 2 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–14
- Q2 5:34NMSUDijon Stanley 28 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–7
- Q2 8:27KENNClayton Coppock 55 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)24–0
- Q1 7:33KENNBritton Williams 35 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:37KENNGabriel Benyard 23 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:36KENNGabriel Benyard 34 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAmari Odom 14/30, 219 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushColeman Bennett 16 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecGabriel Benyard 3 REC, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLogan Fife 28/46, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDijon Stanley 10 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTK King 4 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:37NMSU +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #37 I.Rudison rush left for 0 yards to the KSU02 (#97 A.Watkins; #46 T.Christopher)
- Q4 3:29KENN +22%
Shotgun #4 C.Belcher rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU36 (#8 B.Vislisel)
- Q4 0:32NMSU +9%
#17 R.Hawk field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD
- Q1 14:54NMSU +8%
Shotgun #0 C.Bennett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSU26 (#54 T.Tuitama; #96 C.Schnettgoecke)
- Q4 1:47NMSU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass incomplete short left to #5 D.Faupel thrown to NMSU23
- Q4 10:35NMSU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Fife pass complete short right to #5 D.Faupel caught at KSU00, for 2 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico State?
Kennesaw State 24, New Mexico State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
| KENN | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 316 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 208 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 21 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 8-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/30 | Comp/Att | 28/46 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 13-128 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 29:20 | Possession | 30:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:42 NMSU go for it on 4th & 4 at NMSU 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:28NMSUDonovan Faupel 2 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–21
- Q4 10:35NMSUDonovan Faupel 2 Yd pass from Logan Fife (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–14
- Q2 5:34NMSUDijon Stanley 28 Yd Run (Ryan Hawk Kick)24–7
- Q2 8:27KENNClayton Coppock 55 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)24–0
- Q1 7:33KENNBritton Williams 35 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:37KENNGabriel Benyard 23 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:36KENNGabriel Benyard 34 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1194, KENN Elo 1388 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +5.4 (37% to win) — 5.6 points clear of NMSU's market line of +11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#120) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | -12 / +6 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →