Sat, Nov 8, 9:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| NMSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1194, KENN Elo 1388) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +5.4 (35% to win) — 5.6 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of +11.
KENN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kennesaw State 24, New Mexico State 21.
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass intercepted by #9 B.Iya at NMSU00 #9 B.Iya return 10 yards to the NMSU10 (#6 C.Moss)
End of 4th quarter.
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete deep left to #18 C.Coppock caught at NMSU09, for 55 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:27, 1ST DOWN #27 B.Williams kick attempt good (H: #91 J.Huiet, LS: #34 B.Noonan)
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