Aggie Memorial StadiumConference gameClosing line: KENN +-11 · NMSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| NMSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Team stats
KENNthis game · better side highlightedNMSU
427
Total yards
316219
Passing yards
241208
Rushing yards
7521
First downs
268-17 · 47%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1194
KENN 1388
Projected spread
NMSU +5.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
KENN
65% to win
Market spread
NMSU +11
sportsbook line
Model edge
NMSU
5.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
NMSU · market 24%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1194, KENN Elo 1388) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +5.4 (35% to win) — 5.6 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of +11.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)KENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENN.
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge KENN.
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge KENN.
Drive-by-drive
KENN 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 3/14 scoring drives
KENNTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NMSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
KENNTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KENN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
KENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico State?
Kennesaw State 24, New Mexico State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.