Iowa vs. Rutgers: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Iowa2-1

▸

Rutgers3-0

Final

SHI StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
IOWA	14	7	0	17	38
RUTG	14	7	0	7	28

IOWATeam statsRUTG

346Total yards400

186Pass330

160Rush70

22First downs20

3-83rd down6-13

0Turnovers1

28:54Possession31:06

Q4 2:14IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)38–28
Q4 5:39IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)31–28
Q4 9:44RUTGAntwan Raymond 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)24–28
Q4 14:02IOWADrew Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 24–21
Q2 8:00IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)21–21
Q2 12:07RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 1 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)14–21
Q1 2:24IOWAKamari Moulton 6 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)14–14
Q1 6:03RUTGAthan Kaliakmanis 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–14
Q1 12:39RUTGAntwan Raymond 5 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)7–7
Q1 14:48IOWAKaden Wetjen 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

IOWA −2.8

market IOWA −2.5

Biggest swing

RUTG +21%

Q1 14:48

Against the number

IOWA covered

line IOWA −2.5

RUTG favored ↑50%IOWA favored ↓

GridpexIOWA 100%

Closing line

IOWA −2.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

IOWA −2.8

Actual result

IOWA 38 – 28 RUTG

Iowa

PassMark Gronowski 12/18, 186 YDS
RushKamari Moulton 14 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
RecDayton Howard 1 REC, 42 YDS

Rutgers

PassAthan Kaliakmanis 24/40, 330 YDS, 1 INT
RushAntwan Raymond 18 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
RecIan Strong 8 REC, 151 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

RUTG win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13 LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27 LArkansas vs BYU31-38 LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24 WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28

Q1 14:48RUTG +21%
J. Scullion kick for 65 yds,K. Wetjen return for 100 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
Q4 14:02IOWA +8%
Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD
Q4 2:14IOWA +7%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
Q4 4:06RUTG +6%
Kamari Moulton run for 11 yds to the RUTG 24 for a 1ST down
Q4 7:55IOWA +6%
Shotgun Gronowski,Mark pass incomplete short right to Gill,Jacob thrown to IOWA45 PENALTY RU Holding (Salaam,Al-Shadee) 10 yards from IOWA33 to IOWA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
Q3 9:37IOWA +6%
Drew Stevens 40 yd FG MISSED

FAQ

What was the final score of Iowa vs. Rutgers?

Iowa 38, Rutgers 28.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.

IOWA

RUTG

59%

Success rate

46%

0.31

EPA / pass

0.28

0.29

EPA / rush

0.21

61%

Early-down success

46%

55%

Pass success

44%

61%

Rush success

48%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

38%

Pass rate

63%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

IOWA

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

RUTG

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

IOWA		RUTG
346	Total yards	400
186	Passing yards	330
160	Rushing yards	70
22	First downs	20
3-8	3rd down	6-13
0-0	4th down	0-1
12/18	Comp/Att	24/40
10.3	Yards per pass	8.3
4.2	Yards per rush	2.3
0	Turnovers	1
2-30	Penalties	6-50
28:54	Possession	31:06

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

RUTG 1593

IOWA 1723

Projected spread

RUTG +2.8

incl. home edge

Model pick

IOWA

56% to win

Market spread

RUTG +2.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

44%

RUTG · market 46%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1593, IOWA Elo 1723 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +2.8 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

IOWA2025 season · national rank shownRUTG

320.1119th

Total yards / game

407.644th

5.3103rd

Yards / play

5.860th

143.2129th

Passing yards / game

266.125th

176.943rd

Rushing yards / game

141.584th

43.5%34th

3rd down %

42.5%41st

284.29th

Yards allowed / game

434.0127th

33.9%23rd

3rd down % allowed

40.4%84th

+166th

Turnover margin

072nd

3.02nd

Penalties / game

4.19th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

IOWA		RUTG
+16.7 (#24)	CORE overall	-4.9 (#79)
+4 / -13	offense / defense	+10 / +14
2.62	points / drive	2.60
1.35	allowed / drive	3.60
22%	three-and-outs	23%
-8	pass over expected	+3

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

Create a free account →

You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

IOWATeam statsRUTG

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Iowa vs. Rutgers?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Iowa vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap

IOWATeam statsRUTG

How the model called it

What was the final score of Iowa vs. Rutgers?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups