Iowa State vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsTCU
- Q4 6:32ISUAiden Flora 79 Yd Punt Return (Carson Hansen Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q4 8:12ISUCarson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q4 13:30TCUTrent Battle 2 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)6–17
- Q3 9:07TCUJordan Dwyer 14 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)6–10
- Q2 3:54TCUNate McCashland 35 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 9:18ISUBenjamin Brahmer 23 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassRocco Becht 9/24, 111 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 28 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Sowell 4 REC, 31 YDS
- PassJosh Hoover 34/50, 319 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJeremy Payne 8 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecJordan Dwyer 11 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:15TCU +54%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU21, for 3 yards to the TCU28 (#24 Q.Taylor; #31 M.Neal)
- Q4 6:32ISU +47%
Aiden Flora 79 Yd Punt Return (Carson Hansen Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 9:07TCU +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at ISU00, for 14 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ISU Holding declined. The…
- Q4 5:04ISU +22%
Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU15 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #0 Z.Chapman)
- Q4 8:12ISU +18%
#26 C.Hansen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN rush attempt failed #5 C.Moberly rush attempt failed
- Q2 0:15ISU +18%
Kneel down by #3 R.Becht at ISU19 for loss of 1 yard
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. TCU?
Iowa State 20, TCU 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 272 | Total yards | 432 |
| 111 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 15 | First downs | 30 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 9/24 | Comp/Att | 34/50 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 27:24 | Possession | 32:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:09 ISU punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:32ISUAiden Flora 79 Yd Punt Return (Carson Hansen Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q4 8:12ISUCarson Hansen 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q4 13:30TCUTrent Battle 2 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)6–17
- Q3 9:07TCUJordan Dwyer 14 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)6–10
- Q2 3:54TCUNate McCashland 35 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 9:18ISUBenjamin Brahmer 23 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1700, ISU Elo 1589 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -6.8 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTCU leads 9–7 · Iowa State has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ISU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#51) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#31) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | +6 / -7 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →