Hawai'i vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsCSU
- Q4 2:23HAWCam Barfield 35 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–19
- Q4 6:50CSUTahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q4 11:58CSUArmani Winfield 7 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–13
- Q3 3:09HAWKansei Matsuzawa 26 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 9:50HAWJackson Harris 9 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:54HAWJackson Harris 75 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:00CSUJavion Kinnard 91 Yd Punt Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:38HAWNick Cenacle 17 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMicah Alejado 26/38, 301 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLandon Sims 12 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecJackson Harris 5 REC, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJackson Brousseau 15/29, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLloyd Avant 8 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecTay Lanier 2 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:54HAW +26%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 75 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q4 6:50CSU +23%
Tahj Bullock run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q1 0:00CSU +19%
Billy Gowers punt for 67 yds, Javion Kinnard returns for 91 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q1 8:38HAW +18%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q3 9:50HAW +18%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Jackson Harris for 9 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
- Q4 6:44HAW +15%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the HAW 26
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Colorado State?
Hawai'i 31, Colorado State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 435 | Total yards | 261 |
| 301 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 134 | Rushing yards | 85 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 26/38 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-23 | Penalties | 5-51 |
| 34:59 | Possession | 25:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:55 HAW punt on 4th & 2 at HAW 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:23HAWCam Barfield 35 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–19
- Q4 6:50CSUTahj Bullock 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q4 11:58CSUArmani Winfield 7 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–13
- Q3 3:09HAWKansei Matsuzawa 26 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 9:50HAWJackson Harris 9 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:54HAWJackson Harris 75 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:00CSUJavion Kinnard 91 Yd Punt Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:38HAWNick Cenacle 17 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1384, HAW Elo 1335 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado State leads 16–13 · Hawai'i has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| HAW | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| +1 / +7 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 2.06 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →