Canvas StadiumConference gameClosing line: CSU -2.5 · HAW covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| CSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
Team stats
HAWthis game · better side highlightedCSU
435
Total yards
261301
Passing yards
176134
Rushing yards
8519
First downs
157-14 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CSU 1384
HAW 1335
Projected spread
CSU -4.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
CSU
63% to win
Market spread
CSU -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
CSU · market 54%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1384, HAW Elo 1335) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CSU (top)HAW (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- HAW rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge CSU.
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
Drive-by-drive
HAW 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →CSU 2/10 scoring drives
CSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
HAWTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
CSUPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
HAW went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Colorado State?
Hawai'i 31, Colorado State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had CSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.