Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsVAN
- Q4 2:26GASTDJ Riles 32 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–70
- Q4 7:23VANDrew Dickey 9 Yd Run (Mason Rohmiller Kick)15–70
- Q4 11:02VANBlaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)15–63
- Q3 8:38VANJamison Curtis 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brock Taylor Kick)15–56
- Q3 9:23VANMakhilyn Young 60 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)15–49
- Q3 10:11GASTLeo Blackburn 3 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–42
- Q2 0:24VANSedrick Alexander 10 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)9–42
- Q2 1:41VANAJ Newberry 8 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)9–35
- Q2 4:15VANAJ Newberry 2 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)9–28
- Q2 10:21GASTJordon Simmons 4 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister PAT blocked)9–21
- Q1 1:33VANJunior Sherrill 8 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:08VANDiego Pavia 16 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:52VANSedrick Alexander 3 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:24GASTBraeden McAlister 52 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassTJ Finley 22/35, 176 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRashad Amos 5 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecTed Hurst III 7 REC, 71 YDS
- PassDiego Pavia 18/24, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDiego Pavia 9 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Stowers 5 REC, 73 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt?
Georgia State 21, Vanderbilt 70.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| GAST | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total yards | 635 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 349 |
| 32 | Rushing yards | 286 |
| 18 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 31/48 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 15-109 | Penalties | 10-99 |
| 30:11 | Possession | 29:49 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:38 VAN go for it on 4th & 3 at GAST 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:26GASTDJ Riles 32 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–70
- Q4 7:23VANDrew Dickey 9 Yd Run (Mason Rohmiller Kick)15–70
- Q4 11:02VANBlaze Berlowitz 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)15–63
- Q3 8:38VANJamison Curtis 4 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Brock Taylor Kick)15–56
- Q3 9:23VANMakhilyn Young 60 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)15–49
- Q3 10:11GASTLeo Blackburn 3 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–42
- Q2 0:24VANSedrick Alexander 10 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)9–42
- Q2 1:41VANAJ Newberry 8 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)9–35
- Q2 4:15VANAJ Newberry 2 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)9–28
- Q2 10:21GASTJordon Simmons 4 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Braeden McAlister PAT blocked)9–21
- Q1 1:33VANJunior Sherrill 8 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–21
- Q1 3:08VANDiego Pavia 16 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:52VANSedrick Alexander 3 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:24GASTBraeden McAlister 52 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1654, GAST Elo 1213 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -20 (90% to win) — 7.5 points clear of GAST's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | +25.4 (#8) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | +28 / +2 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 3.85 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →