Fresno State vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsHAW
- Q4 0:10HAWBlaze Kamoku 10 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–21
- Q4 5:20FRESK'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)23–15
- Q4 9:54FRESDylan Lynch 27 Yd Field Goal 16–15
- Q3 3:15HAWKansei Matsuzawa 52 Yd Field Goal 13–15
- Q3 5:47FRESBryson Donelson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q3 7:31HAWKansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal 7–12
- Q2 0:38FRESRichie Anderson III 13 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–9
- Q2 1:47HAWJamih Otis 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–9
- Q2 7:20HAWTeam Safety 0–2
How the model called it
- PassE.J. Warner 22/29, 230 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRayshon Luke 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecKamron Beachem 2 REC, 84 YDS
- PassMicah Alejado 28/47, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushMicah Alejado 12 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecPofele Ashlock 8 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:20FRES +40%
K'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)
- Q4 0:00FRES +38%
E. Warner takes a knee
- Q4 9:54FRES +31%
Dylan Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:10HAW +30%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 0:38FRES +24%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q3 5:47FRES +24%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Hawai'i?
Fresno State 23, Hawai'i 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| FRES | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 308 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 16 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/29 | Comp/Att | 28/47 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-87 | Penalties | 7-41 |
| 30:10 | Possession | 29:50 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:26 FRES punt on 4th & 3 at FRES 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10HAWBlaze Kamoku 10 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–21
- Q4 5:20FRESK'Vion Thunderbird 59 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Lynch Kick)23–15
- Q4 9:54FRESDylan Lynch 27 Yd Field Goal 16–15
- Q3 3:15HAWKansei Matsuzawa 52 Yd Field Goal 13–15
- Q3 5:47FRESBryson Donelson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q3 7:31HAWKansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal 7–12
- Q2 0:38FRESRichie Anderson III 13 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–9
- Q2 1:47HAWJamih Otis 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–9
- Q2 7:20HAWTeam Safety 0–2
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1238, FRES Elo 1522 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +9 (29% to win) — 6.5 points clear of FRES's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHawai'i leads 20–19–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| FRES | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#73) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →