Florida State vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 7:37FSUJake Weinberg 46 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 14:18CLEMNolan Hauser 43 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 6:01CLEMNolan Hauser 23 Yd Field Goal 7–21
- Q2 0:33FSULawayne McCoy 7 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–18
- Q2 2:31CLEMNolan Hauser 40 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q2 12:01CLEMAntonio Williams 34 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)0–15
- Q1 8:25CLEMCade Klubnik 4 Yd Run (Clay Swinney Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CLEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.1
- FSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassThomas Castellanos 23/43, 250 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 11 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecDuce Robinson 9 REC, 124 YDS
- PassCade Klubnik 20/27, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAdam Randall 15 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecAntonio Williams 6 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:01CLEM +11%
Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete deep middle to #0 A.Williams caught at FSU00, for 34 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:33FSU +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short middle to #7 L.McCoy caught at CLE00, for 7 yards to the CLE00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic r…
- Q3 6:01CLEM +8%
#81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:31CLEM +5%
#81 N.Hauser field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Clemson?
Florida State 10, Clemson 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CLEM) was correct.
| FSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total yards | 319 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 110 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/43 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 2-17 |
| 25:38 | Possession | 34:22 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:16 FSU punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:37FSUJake Weinberg 46 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 14:18CLEMNolan Hauser 43 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 6:01CLEMNolan Hauser 23 Yd Field Goal 7–21
- Q2 0:33FSULawayne McCoy 7 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Jake Weinberg Kick)7–18
- Q2 2:31CLEMNolan Hauser 40 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q2 12:01CLEMAntonio Williams 34 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Nolan Hauser Kick)0–15
- Q1 8:25CLEMCade Klubnik 4 Yd Run (Clay Swinney Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1703, FSU Elo 1631 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -5.3 (65% to win) — 3.8 points clear of CLEM's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 21–17 · Clemson has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#29) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#56) |
| +13 / -1 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →