Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)Conference gameClosing line: CLEM -1.5 · CLEM covered
Sun, Nov 9, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| CLEM | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1703, FSU Elo 1631) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -5.3 (65% to win) — 3.8 points of value on CLEM versus the market line of -1.5.
CLEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida State 10, Clemson 24.
Yes — the model's pick (CLEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CLEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos rush middle for 3 yards loss to the CLE11 fumbled by #1 T.Castellanos at CLE12 recovered by CLE #35 J.Alexander at CLE11, End Of Play
End of 4th quarter.
(12:08) Shotgun #2 C.Klubnik pass complete deep middle to #0 A.Williams caught at FSU00, for 34 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:01, 1ST DOWN #81 N.Hauser kick attempt good (H: #88 C.Swinney, LS: #58 H.Caspersen)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →