Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| CONN | 14 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 51 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1437, FIU Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -7.1 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
CONN up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida International 10, UConn 51.
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
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