Florida International vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsCONN
- Q4 5:46FIUKejon Owens 2 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)10–51
- Q4 9:48CONNOliver Lundberg Coleman 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)3–51
- Q3 2:56CONNSkyler Bell 8 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–44
- Q3 6:46CONNChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q3 13:22CONNVictor Rosa 65 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–34
- Q2 0:21CONNChris Freeman 36 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q2 0:55CONNReymello Murphy 61 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–24
- Q2 6:05FIUNoah Grant 26 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:55CONNChris Freeman 43 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:08CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:38CONNSkyler Bell 18 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJoe Pesansky 7/12, 100 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKejon Owens 16 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Perry 4 REC, 32 YDS
- PassJoe Fagnano 22/28, 355 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCam Edwards 12 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecReymello Murphy 3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:38CONN +15%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
- Q1 2:08CONN +10%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UConn?
Florida International 10, UConn 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| FIU | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 304 | Total yards | 527 |
| 174 | Passing yards | 377 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 18 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 6-48 |
| 30:27 | Possession | 29:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:17 FIU punt on 4th & 2 at FIU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:46FIUKejon Owens 2 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)10–51
- Q4 9:48CONNOliver Lundberg Coleman 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)3–51
- Q3 2:56CONNSkyler Bell 8 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–44
- Q3 6:46CONNChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q3 13:22CONNVictor Rosa 65 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–34
- Q2 0:21CONNChris Freeman 36 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q2 0:55CONNReymello Murphy 61 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)3–24
- Q2 6:05FIUNoah Grant 26 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 10:55CONNChris Freeman 43 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:08CONNCam Edwards 1 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:38CONNSkyler Bell 18 Yd pass from Joe Fagnano (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1437, FIU Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -7.1 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | -7.6 (#89) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | +5 / +13 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 3.14 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →