Pratt & Whitney StadiumClosing line: CONN -7 · CONN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| CONN | 14 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 51 |
Team stats
FIUthis game · better side highlightedCONN
304
Total yards
527174
Passing yards
377130
Rushing yards
15018
First downs
223-15 · 20%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CONN 1437
FIU 1320
Projected spread
CONN -7.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
CONN
70% to win
Market spread
CONN -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
70%
CONN · market 71%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CONN Elo 1437, FIU Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects CONN -7.1 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CONN (top)FIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CONN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CONN pass offense (0.44 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge CONN.
- CONN rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge CONN.
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. CONN pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge CONN.
Drive-by-drive
FIU 2/15 scoring drives← own end zone →CONN 9/15 scoring drives
FIUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 26Q1
CONNTD11 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1
FIUFUM2 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CONN up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 198 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
CONN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UConn?
Florida International 10, UConn 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CONN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.