Thu, Oct 30, 12:00 AM


| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| MOST | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1335, FIU Elo 1246) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST -6 (67% to win) — 3.0 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -3.
MOST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida International 21, Missouri State 28.
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MOST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 41 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass complete deep right to #11 M.Cope caught at FIU45, for 27 yards to the FIU45, out of bounds at FIU45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FIU Offside declined
#9 R.Johnson rush right for 38 yards gain to the FIU09 fumbled by #9 R.Johnson at FIU13 forced by #0 J.Chaney Jr. recovered by FIU #2 B.Blades II at FIU09, End Of Play
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →