Florida International
3-4·Conference USA· Elo 1246
21–28
Final
Missouri State
4-3·Conference USA· Elo 1335
Plaster Sports ComplexConference gameClosing line: MOST -3 · MOST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| MOST | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Team stats
FIUthis game · better side highlightedMOST
346
Total yards
369231
Passing yards
163115
Rushing yards
20623
First downs
186-16 · 38%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MOST 1335
FIU 1246
Projected spread
MOST -6
incl. home edge
Model pick
MOST
67% to win
Market spread
MOST -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
3.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
67%
MOST · market 60%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1335, FIU Elo 1246) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST -6 (67% to win) — 3.0 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MOST (top)FIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FIU.
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
FIU 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 4/14 scoring drives
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 16Q1
FIUFUM3 pl, 14 yds· own 36Q1
MOSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· midfieldQ1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MOST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
MOST went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Missouri State?
Florida International 21, Missouri State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MOST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.