Florida International vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsMOST
- Q4 3:29FIUJoJo Stone 5 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)21–28
- Q4 8:21MOSTJmariyae Robinson 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:47MOSTJmariyae Robinson 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:44FIUAlex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)14–14
- Q2 4:32MOSTShomari Lawrence 41 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:04FIUDallas Payne 6 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49MOSTShomari Lawrence 3 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKeyone Jenkins 15/24, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKejon Owens 18 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecC'Quan Jnopierre 3 REC, 57 YDS
- PassJacob Clark 16/27, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RushShomari Lawrence 14 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMakai Cope 2 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMOST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:10MOST +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Owens rush right for 0 yards to the FIU09 (#6 J.Lloyd; #9 D.Dixson)
- Q2 0:44FIU +21%
Alex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)
- Q2 4:32MOST +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 41 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:00MOST +16%
#40 C.Lair rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU30 (#2 B.Blades II)
- Q3 12:11FIU +10%
Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU16 (#27 M.Clark)
- Q4 9:45MOST +9%
#2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU50 (#22 S.Sterlin)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Missouri State?
Florida International 21, Missouri State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MOST) was correct.
| FIU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 369 |
| 231 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 206 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 16/27 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 3-36 |
| 32:01 | Possession | 27:59 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:38 MOST punt on 4th & 2 at MOST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:29FIUJoJo Stone 5 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)21–28
- Q4 8:21MOSTJmariyae Robinson 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:47MOSTJmariyae Robinson 8 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:44FIUAlex Perry 25 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)14–14
- Q2 4:32MOSTShomari Lawrence 41 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:04FIUDallas Payne 6 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49MOSTShomari Lawrence 3 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1335, FIU Elo 1246 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -6 (67% to win) — 3.0 points clear of MOST's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | -9.3 (#92) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →