Yager StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 16 | 30 |
| M-OH | 7 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
M-OH 1440
EMU 1213
Projected spread
M-OH -11.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
M-OH
80% to win
Market spread
M-OH -12
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
80%
M-OH · market 80%
Our model blends Elo ratings (M-OH Elo 1440, EMU Elo 1213) plus home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -11.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
M-OH (top)EMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: M-OH 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- M-OH pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- M-OH rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. M-OH pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
EMU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →M-OH 6/12 scoring drives
EMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
M-OHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 21Q1
EMUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 21Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
M-OH up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
M-OH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH)?
Eastern Michigan 30, Miami (OH) 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.