Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 0:58EMUNick Devereaux 21 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Noah Kim Pass to Joshua Long for Two-Point Conversion)30–44
- Q4 3:52M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 2 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)22–44
- Q4 9:07EMUNick Devereaux 19 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Noah Kim Pass to Porter Rooks for Two-Point Conversion)22–37
- Q4 14:07M-OHTeam Safety 14–37
- Q4 14:35M-OHDequan Finn 4 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)14–35
- Q3 5:28M-OHDequan Finn 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:26EMUHarold Mack 12 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–21
- Q2 4:17M-OHBrian Shane 20 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:46EMUHarold Mack 51 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:41M-OHJosh Ringer 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:25M-OHJordan Brunson 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- EMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and M-OH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.7
- EMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassNoah Kim 20/36, 309 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 11 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecHarold Mack 6 REC, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDequan Finn 13/22, 159 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan Brunson 23 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrian Shane 4 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:25M-OH +12%
Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
- Q2 0:26EMU +10%
Noah Kim pass complete to Harold Mack for 12 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)
- Q2 6:46EMU +9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Harold Mack for 51 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)
- Q2 4:17M-OH +8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Brian Shane for 20 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
- Q3 5:28M-OH +8%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
- Q2 7:41M-OH +8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Josh Ringer for 3 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Miami (OH)?
Eastern Michigan 30, Miami (OH) 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
| EMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 454 |
| 309 | Passing yards | 159 |
| 60 | Rushing yards | 295 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 11-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-24 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 17:51 | Possession | 42:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:07 EMU go for it on 4th & 10 at EMU 12. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.86 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:58EMUNick Devereaux 21 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Noah Kim Pass to Joshua Long for Two-Point Conversion)30–44
- Q4 3:52M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 2 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)22–44
- Q4 9:07EMUNick Devereaux 19 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Noah Kim Pass to Porter Rooks for Two-Point Conversion)22–37
- Q4 14:07M-OHTeam Safety 14–37
- Q4 14:35M-OHDequan Finn 4 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)14–35
- Q3 5:28M-OHDequan Finn 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)14–28
- Q2 0:26EMUHarold Mack 12 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–21
- Q2 4:17M-OHBrian Shane 20 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:46EMUHarold Mack 51 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:41M-OHJosh Ringer 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:25M-OHJordan Brunson 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1440, EMU Elo 1213 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -11.5 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 21–6 · Miami (OH) has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| EMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#114) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#81) |
| -3 / +13 | offense / defense | -7 / -1 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →