Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsCMU
- Q4 7:08CMUCade Graham 22 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 10:45EMUNoah Kim 14 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)13–21
- Q2 5:57EMURudy Kessinger 38 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 10:46CMULangston Lewis 2 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Cade Graham Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:25EMURudy Kessinger 41 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:03CMUNahree Biggins 49 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:36CMUBrock Townsend 1 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNoah Kim 17/28, 175 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 13 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecBenson Prosper 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassJoe Labas 14/16, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAngel Flores 22 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecTommy McIntosh 2 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:09EMU +22%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 43 yds, Caleb Spann returns for 11 yds to the CMU 39
- Q1 9:36CMU +18%
Joe Labas pass complete to Brock Townsend for 1 yd for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
- Q1 5:03CMU +16%
Nahree Biggins run for 49 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
- Q2 10:46CMU +13%
Angel Flores pass complete to Langston Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
- Q4 7:08CMU +10%
Cade Graham 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:19CMU +7%
Declan Duley punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 40 Eastern Michigan Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds (Joey Mattord) to the EMU 25
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan?
Eastern Michigan 13, Central Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked EMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 298 | Total yards | 445 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 140 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 305 |
| 19 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 15/19 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-52 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 23:36 | Possession | 36:24 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:02 CMU punt on 4th & 1 at CMU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:08CMUCade Graham 22 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 10:45EMUNoah Kim 14 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)13–21
- Q2 5:57EMURudy Kessinger 38 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 10:46CMULangston Lewis 2 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Cade Graham Kick)3–21
- Q1 1:25EMURudy Kessinger 41 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:03CMUNahree Biggins 49 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:36CMUBrock Townsend 1 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1094, EMU Elo 1223 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU +2.8 (44% to win) — 5.8 points clear of EMU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCentral Michigan leads 34–15–2 · 49% have been one-possession games
| EMU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#114) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#87) |
| -3 / +13 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →