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Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
UB StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 30 |
| BUF | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BUF 1382
EMU 1193
Projected spread
BUF -10
incl. home edge
Model pick
BUF
77% to win
Market spread
BUF -9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
77%
BUF · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1382, EMU Elo 1193) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF -10 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BUF (top)EMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BUF 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
EMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedBUF
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.0742%
Success rate
39%1.24
Explosiveness
1.203.95
Pts / opportunity
3.5064%
Power success
69%Defense
0.24
PPA allowed / play
0.1244%
Success rate allowed
39%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.2311%
Havoc rate
15%17%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- BUF pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. BUF rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge EMU.
Drive-by-drive
EMU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BUF 5/13 scoring drives
EMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 34Q1
EMUTD8 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q1
BUFTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
EMUMISS10 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q1
BUFPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 30Q1
EMUTD17 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
BUFTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
EMUPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2
BUFDOWNS8 pl, 46 yds· own 26Q3
EMUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 28Q3
BUFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q3
EMUTD10 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q3
BUFTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
EMUPUNT3 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
BUFTD3 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
EMUFUM8 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT
BUFPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q4
EMUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q4
BUFFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 22Q4
EMUFG4 pl, -18 yds· opp 6Q4
BUFMISS7 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4
EMUPUNT9 pl, 32 yds· own 21Q4
BUFFG11 pl, 59 yds· own 9Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
BUF win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Buffalo?
Eastern Michigan 30, Buffalo 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BUF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.