AlamodomeConference game
Sat, Nov 22, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
| UTSA | 14 | 20 | 10 | 14 | 58 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1472, ECU Elo 1604) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +2.9 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UTSA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
East Carolina 24, UTSA 58.
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ECU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass intercepted by #0 S.Banks Jr. at ECU21 broken up by #90 D.Quaite Jr. #0 S.Banks Jr. return 21 yards to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:41 #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Gunn Jr. rush right for 50 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #4 K.Houser pass attempt failed #4 K.Houser pass attempt failed PENALTY #4 K.Houser pass attempt failed PENALTY UTSA Holding (#3 D.Martin) 2 yards from UTSA03 to UTSA01. NO PLAY #93 R.Roseborough pass attempt Successful
(14:03) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #8 D.Amador II caught at ECU45, for 45 yards to the ECU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:56, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #20 C.Hogan, LS: #91 I.Hatfield)
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