Colorado vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsTCU
- Q4 0:19TCUEric McAlister 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 5:44TCUJoseph Manjack IV 18 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–28
- Q4 11:42COLOOmarion Miller 31 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–21
- Q4 14:04TCULafayette Kaiuway 10 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:32TCUEric McAlister 23 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–14
- Q2 2:38TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)14–7
- Q2 6:32COLOKaidon Salter 10 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:33COLOOmarion Miller 6 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKaidon Salter 18/29, 217 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushDallan Hayden 9 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecOmarion Miller 6 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJosh Hoover 23/33, 275 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKevorian Barnes 16 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecEric McAlister 4 REC, 65 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:42COLO +34%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q4 5:44TCU +31%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds for a TD Colorado Penalty, (Yards) declined (Nate McCashland KICK)
- Q4 14:04TCU +25%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
- Q2 1:32TCU +24%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 23 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
- Q4 7:11TCU +18%
Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass complete short right to Rogers,DJ caught at CU45, for 43 yards to the CU05 (Stoutmire,Carter) PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (McAlister,Eric) 1…
- Q4 8:35COLO +17%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. TCU?
Colorado 21, TCU 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
| COLO | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 369 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 9-14 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-43 | Penalties | 7-85 |
| 31:32 | Possession | 28:28 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:19TCUEric McAlister 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 5:44TCUJoseph Manjack IV 18 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)21–28
- Q4 11:42COLOOmarion Miller 31 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–21
- Q4 14:04TCULafayette Kaiuway 10 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–21
- Q2 1:32TCUEric McAlister 23 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)14–14
- Q2 2:38TCUJosh Hoover 1 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)14–7
- Q2 6:32COLOKaidon Salter 10 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–0
- Q2 13:33COLOOmarion Miller 6 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1732, COLO Elo 1618 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -7 (69% to win) — 7.0 points clear of COLO's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| COLO | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#101) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#31) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | +6 / -7 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →