Cincinnati
7-4·Big 12· Elo 1569
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| TCU | 21 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TCU Elo 1602, CIN Elo 1569) plus home-field advantage. That projects TCU -3.7 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TCU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Cincinnati 23, TCU 45.
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jordan Dwyer 69 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
(10:36) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 51 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:28, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU39, for 44 yards to the UC17 (#5 C.Harrison), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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