Charlotte vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLTTeam statsUSF
- Q4 0:43USFNykahi Davenport 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)26–54
- Q4 3:10CLTDerrick Eley 16 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Zach Wilcke Pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)26–47
- Q4 6:48USFByrum Brown 13 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)18–47
- Q4 9:11USFEvan Dangler 1 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)18–40
- Q4 13:58CLTE. Jai Mason 2 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Zach Wilcke Pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)18–33
- Q3 9:39CLTLiam Boyd 33 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q2 1:10USFChas Nimrod 18 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–33
- Q2 3:44CLTCJ Stokes 1 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)7–26
- Q2 14:15USFNico Gramatica 43 Yd Field Goal 0–26
- Q1 1:03USFMudia Reuben 10 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–23
- Q1 5:23USFTeam Safety 0–16
- Q1 7:07USFJeremiah Koger 38 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:01USFCartevious Norton 37 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassZach Wilcke 14/18, 150 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushC.J. Stokes 13 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSean Brown 4 REC, 58 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 19/34, 211 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushByrum Brown 17 CAR, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Koger 4 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. South Florida?
Charlotte 26, South Florida 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| CLT | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 631 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 224 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 407 |
| 15 | First downs | 36 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 11-81 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 28:14 | Possession | 31:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:26 USF punt on 4th & 3 at CLT 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43USFNykahi Davenport 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)26–54
- Q4 3:10CLTDerrick Eley 16 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Zach Wilcke Pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)26–47
- Q4 6:48USFByrum Brown 13 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)18–47
- Q4 9:11USFEvan Dangler 1 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)18–40
- Q4 13:58CLTE. Jai Mason 2 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Zach Wilcke Pass to Jake Young for Two-Point Conversion)18–33
- Q3 9:39CLTLiam Boyd 33 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q2 1:10USFChas Nimrod 18 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–33
- Q2 3:44CLTCJ Stokes 1 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)7–26
- Q2 14:15USFNico Gramatica 43 Yd Field Goal 0–26
- Q1 1:03USFMudia Reuben 10 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–23
- Q1 5:23USFTeam Safety 0–16
- Q1 7:07USFJeremiah Koger 38 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:01USFCartevious Norton 37 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1482, CLT Elo 1183 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -14.4 (83% to win) — 13.6 points clear of CLT's market line of -28. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CLT | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.1 (#135) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| -23 / +10 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 2.98 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →