Raymond James StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | 0 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 26 |
| USF | 23 | 10 | 0 | 21 | 54 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1482
CLT 1183
Projected spread
USF -14.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
USF
86% to win
Market spread
USF -28
sportsbook line
Model edge
CLT
13.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
USF · market 94%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1482, CLT Elo 1183) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -14.4 (86% to win) — 13.6 points of value on CLT versus the market line of -28.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)CLT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CLT rush offense (-0.15 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge USF.
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. CLT pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USF.
- USF rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. CLT rush defense (0.22 allowed) — edge CLT.
Drive-by-drive
CLT 5/17 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 8/16 scoring drives
USFTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CLTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1
USFFUM4 pl, 45 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
USF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. South Florida?
Charlotte 26, South Florida 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had USF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.