BYU vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsISU
- Q4 13:40BYUFaletau Satuala 40 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)41–27
- Q4 14:21BYUParker Kingston 27 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)34–27
- Q3 1:47ISUKyle Konrardy 43 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q3 4:33BYUBear Bachmeier 9 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–24
- Q3 10:52BYUWill Ferrin 27 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:25BYUParker Kingston 12 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:52ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:59BYUWill Ferrin 50 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q1 1:00ISUCarson Hansen 2 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–17
- Q1 8:05ISUKyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:13BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:51ISUBrett Eskildsen 75 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BYU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassBear Bachmeier 22/35, 307 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBear Bachmeier 12 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParker Kingston 7 REC, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- PassRocco Becht 24/36, 311 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 16 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrett Eskildsen 1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:33BYU +36%
Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:47BYU +24%
Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU24 (#2 J.Patton)
- Q2 0:25BYU +19%
Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU00, for 12 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:00ISU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 13:40BYU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #11 F.Satuala at ISU40 #11 F.Satuala return 40 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:13BYU +17%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Iowa State?
BYU 41, Iowa State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| BYU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 495 |
| 307 | Passing yards | 311 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 184 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 24/36 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 5-39 |
| 27:50 | Possession | 32:10 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:14 ISU go for it on 4th & 10 at BYU 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:40BYUFaletau Satuala 40 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)41–27
- Q4 14:21BYUParker Kingston 27 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)34–27
- Q3 1:47ISUKyle Konrardy 43 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q3 4:33BYUBear Bachmeier 9 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–24
- Q3 10:52BYUWill Ferrin 27 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:25BYUParker Kingston 12 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:52ISUCarson Hansen 3 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:59BYUWill Ferrin 50 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q1 1:00ISUCarson Hansen 2 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–17
- Q1 8:05ISUKyle Konrardy 36 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 12:13BYULJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:51ISUBrett Eskildsen 75 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1622, BYU Elo 1697 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU +0.6 (50% to win) — 3.1 points clear of BYU's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#51) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →