BYU
Big 12· Elo 1697
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 7 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 41 |
| ISU | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ISU Elo 1622, BYU Elo 1697) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU +0.6 (48% to win) — 3.1 points of value on BYU versus the market line of -2.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 41, Iowa State 27.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Brett Eskildsen 75 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
End of 4th quarter.
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #7 L.Lutui at BYU12 broken up by #57 K.Tanuvasa #7 L.Lutui return 15 yards to the BYU27 (#84 G.Burkle)
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