Buffalo vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsCMU
- Q4 1:58BUFNik McMillan 26 Yd pass from Gunnar Gray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–38
- Q4 6:36CMUTommy McIntosh 10 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)13–38
- Q4 10:38CMUDakota Cochran 85 Yd Fumble Return (Cade Graham Kick)13–31
- Q3 4:18CMULangston Lewis 75 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)13–24
- Q3 4:30BUFJack Howes 42 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 9:17CMUCade Graham 32 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:48CMUMarcus Beamon 1 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)10–14
- Q2 2:22BUFNik McMillan 55 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:47CMUJordan Kwiatkowski 48 Yd Interception Return (Cade Graham Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:41BUFJack Howes 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 16/33, 208 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerrance Shelton Jr. 11 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecNik McMillan 7 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJoe Labas 18/24, 247 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushTrey Cornist 10 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecLangston Lewis 6 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:36BUF +8%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#8 D.Temple) 5 yards from CMU36 to CMU31. NO PLAY
- Q3 1:16CMU +6%
Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU08, for 9 yards to the CMU15 (#2 R.Murdock)
- Q4 10:48CMU +5%
Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass intercepted by #39 M.Gonser at CMU14 #39 M.Gonser return 2 yards to the CMU12 (#58 A.Poumele), out of bounds
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Central Michigan?
Buffalo 19, Central Michigan 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 398 | Total yards | 358 |
| 262 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 136 | Rushing yards | 111 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/42 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 28:54 | Possession | 31:06 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:04 CMU punt on 4th & 1 at CMU 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58BUFNik McMillan 26 Yd pass from Gunnar Gray (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–38
- Q4 6:36CMUTommy McIntosh 10 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)13–38
- Q4 10:38CMUDakota Cochran 85 Yd Fumble Return (Cade Graham Kick)13–31
- Q3 4:18CMULangston Lewis 75 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)13–24
- Q3 4:30BUFJack Howes 42 Yd Field Goal 13–17
- Q3 9:17CMUCade Graham 32 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:48CMUMarcus Beamon 1 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)10–14
- Q2 2:22BUFNik McMillan 55 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:47CMUJordan Kwiatkowski 48 Yd Interception Return (Cade Graham Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:41BUFJack Howes 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1235, BUF Elo 1376 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU +3.2 (43% to win) — 5.7 points clear of BUF's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCentral Michigan leads 9–4 · 38% have been one-possession games
| BUF | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.7 (#124) | CORE overall | -6.9 (#87) |
| -15 / +5 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →