Dix StadiumConference gameClosing line: BGSU +-7.5 · KENT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| KENT | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
Team stats
BGSUthis game · better side highlightedKENT
379
Total yards
294172
Passing yards
172207
Rushing yards
12222
First downs
1412-18 · 67%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KENT 938
BGSU 1329
Projected spread
KENT +13.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
84% to win
Market spread
KENT +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
5.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
16%
KENT · market 26%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENT Elo 938, BGSU Elo 1329) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENT +13.2 (16% to win) — 5.7 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KENT (top)BGSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge KENT.
- BGSU rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. KENT rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENT.
- KENT rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge BGSU.
Drive-by-drive
BGSU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →KENT 4/10 scoring drives
KENTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUTD9 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1
KENTPUNT6 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BGSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
BGSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Kent State?
Bowling Green 21, Kent State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.