Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| KENT | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENT Elo 938, BGSU Elo 1329) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENT +13.2 (16% to win) — 5.7 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of +7.5.
BGSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Bowling Green 21, Kent State 24.
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 3rd quarter.
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 45 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #47 W.Hryszko kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Durkin, LS: #41 G.Goodell)
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.May pass complete short middle to #2 R.Garcia II caught at KSU49, for 18 yards to the KSU46 QB hurried by #33 J.Roy (#18 T.Miller), 1ST DOWN
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