Bowling Green vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsKENT
- Q4 3:15KENTWayne Harris 12 Yd pass from Da'Realyst Clark (Will Hryszko Kick)21–24
- Q3 4:23KENTGavin Garcia 45 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)21–17
- Q3 6:24KENTCade Wolford 29 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:47BGSUBaron May 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:33BGSUAustyn Dendy 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)14–3
- Q2 6:12KENTWill Hryszko 35 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:36BGSUJacob Harris 13 Yd pass from Baron May (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBaron May 12/22, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAustyn Dendy 20 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJyrin Johnson 3 REC, 53 YDS
- PassDru DeShields 13/22, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGavin Garcia 6 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCade Wolford 2 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:15KENT +74%
No Huddle-Shotgun #30 D.Clark pass complete short right to #6 W.Harris caught at BGSU00, for 12 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:43KENT +29%
#61 C.Durkin punt 39 yards to the BGSU21 #5 B.Ridley return 0 yards to the BGSU21 (#41 G.Goodell) PENALTY BGSU Running Into The Kicker declined
- Q4 3:08BGSU +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Dendy rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BGSU33 (#21 J.Cordoba)
- Q4 0:39BGSU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.May pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Johnson thrown to BGSU30 QB hurried by #95 J.Davis. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incom…
- Q4 0:38BGSU +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.May pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Middleton thrown to BGSU40 PENALTY BGSU Holding (#55 T.Fatukasi) 10 yards from BGSU21 to BGSU11. NO PLAY
- Q3 4:23KENT +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 45 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL…
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Kent State?
Bowling Green 21, Kent State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 379 | Total yards | 294 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 12-18 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/28 | Comp/Att | 14/23 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-66 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 36:52 | Possession | 23:08 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:56 BGSU field goal on 4th & 2 at KENT 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:15KENTWayne Harris 12 Yd pass from Da'Realyst Clark (Will Hryszko Kick)21–24
- Q3 4:23KENTGavin Garcia 45 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)21–17
- Q3 6:24KENTCade Wolford 29 Yd pass from Dru DeShields (Will Hryszko Kick)21–10
- Q3 8:47BGSUBaron May 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:33BGSUAustyn Dendy 1 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)14–3
- Q2 6:12KENTWill Hryszko 35 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:36BGSUJacob Harris 13 Yd pass from Baron May (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 938, BGSU Elo 1329 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +13.2 (20% to win) — 5.7 points clear of BGSU's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#100 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #60 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 47–16 · 29% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | -19.8 (#125) |
| -16 / +3 | offense / defense | -5 / +14 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.87 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →