Boston College vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsSYR
- Q4 3:20SYRDan Villari 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–12
- Q4 9:24BCJordan McDonald 14 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)34–6
- Q4 13:35BCTurbo Richard 46 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)27–6
- Q3 0:59BCJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)20–6
- Q3 11:54BCTurbo Richard 16 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)13–6
- Q2 0:28BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q2 3:05SYRTripp Woody 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 14:15SYRTripp Woody 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:04BCLuca Lombardo 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGrayson James 16/24, 288 YDS
- RushTurbo Richard 15 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLewis Bond 8 REC, 171 YDS
- PassJoseph Filardi 10/18, 65 YDS
- RushWill Nixon 16 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecJohntay Cook II 3 REC, 28 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:54BC +23%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush left for 16 yards gain to the SYRA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN kick attempt good (H: #28 S.Florio, LS:
- Q3 0:59BC +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.McDonald rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SYRA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:28BC +10%
#99 L.Lombardo field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD
- Q2 3:05SYR +10%
#47 T.Woody field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
- Q2 14:15SYR +10%
#47 T.Woody field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
- Q1 4:04BC +8%
#99 L.Lombardo field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Syracuse?
Boston College 34, Syracuse 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BC) was correct.
| BC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 254 |
| 296 | Passing yards | 65 |
| 137 | Rushing yards | 189 |
| 20 | First downs | 12 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 10/18 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 8-76 |
| 26:50 | Possession | 33:10 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20SYRDan Villari 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)34–12
- Q4 9:24BCJordan McDonald 14 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)34–6
- Q4 13:35BCTurbo Richard 46 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)27–6
- Q3 0:59BCJordan McDonald 2 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)20–6
- Q3 11:54BCTurbo Richard 16 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)13–6
- Q2 0:28BCLuca Lombardo 31 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q2 3:05SYRTripp Woody 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q2 14:15SYRTripp Woody 49 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:04BCLuca Lombardo 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1230, BC Elo 1311 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +0.8 (49% to win) — 2.2 points clear of SYR's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSyracuse leads 34–25 · Boston College has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| BC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#95) | CORE overall | -20.9 (#127) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 1.12 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.89 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →