JMA Wireless DomeConference gameClosing line: BC +-3 · BC covered
Sat, Nov 29, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 34 |
| SYR | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SYR Elo 1230, BC Elo 1311) plus home-field advantage. That projects SYR +0.8 (48% to win) — 2.2 points of value on SYR versus the market line of +3.
BC up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boston College 34, Syracuse 12.
Yes — the model's pick (BC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete deep middle to #11 L.Bond caught at BC41, for 54 yards to the SYRA25 (#19 C.Perry), 1ST DOWN
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Richard rush middle for 46 yards gain to the SYRA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #99 L.Lombardo kick attempt good (H: #28 S.Florio, LS: #49 C.Crook)
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short middle to #85 K.Chudzinski caught at SYRA44, for 41 yards to the SYRA14 (#2 D.Chestnut), 1ST DOWN
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