Baylor vs. Arizona: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Baylor5-5

Arizona7-3

▸

Final

Arizona StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
BAY	14	3	0	0	17
ARIZ	7	7	7	20	41

BAYTeam statsARIZ

343Total yards355

162Pass183

181Rush172

20First downs21

7-173rd down4-10

3Turnovers1

32:48Possession27:12

Q4 6:27ARIZJabari Mann 34 Yd Interception Return (Michael Salgado-Medina PAT failed)17–41
Q4 6:38ARIZKedrick Reescano 19 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–35
Q4 10:31ARIZIsmail Mahdi 28 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–28
Q3 11:49ARIZKedrick Reescano 1 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–21
Q2 0:00BAYConnor Hawkins 48 Yd Field Goal 17–14
Q2 8:59ARIZKris Hutson 2 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–14
Q1 0:40BAYSawyer Robertson 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)14–7
Q1 7:46ARIZKedrick Reescano 2 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–7
Q1 12:05BAYJosh Cameron 9 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

ARIZ −2.7

market ARIZ −6.5

Biggest swing

ARIZ +25%

Q3 11:49

Against the number

ARIZ covered

line ARIZ −6.5

ARIZ favored ↑50%BAY favored ↓

GridpexARIZ 100%

Closing line

ARIZ −6.5

Closing total

61.0

Model line

ARIZ −2.7

Actual result

BAY 17 – 41 ARIZ

Baylor

PassSawyer Robertson 22/33, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
RushCaden Knighten 17 CAR, 100 YDS
RecJosh Cameron 6 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD

Arizona

PassNoah Fifita 14/24, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushIsmail Mahdi 14 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
RecKris Hutson 9 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD

24.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

148

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARIZ up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

ARIZ went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13 LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13 LMorgan State vs Akron21-24 LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33 WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

Q3 11:49ARIZ +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY ARIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#59 R.Tapa'atoutai) 15 yards from BAY00 t…
Q2 8:59ARIZ +21%
Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #4 K.Hutson caught at BAY00, for 2 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY ARIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#4 K.Hutson)…
Q1 0:40BAY +20%
Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
Q1 7:46ARIZ +18%
Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN
Q1 12:05BAY +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at ARIZ00, for 9 yards to the ARIZ00 TOUCHDOWN
Q4 10:31ARIZ +17%
Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 28 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of Baylor vs. Arizona?

Baylor 17, Arizona 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.

BAY

ARIZ

43%

Success rate

48%

-0.26

EPA / pass

0.27

0.26

EPA / rush

0.33

43%

Early-down success

46%

38%

Pass success

52%

49%

Rush success

44%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

48%

Pass rate

45%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.1

BAY

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

ARIZ

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

BAY		ARIZ
343	Total yards	355
162	Passing yards	183
181	Rushing yards	172
20	First downs	21
7-17	3rd down	4-10
3-6	4th down	2-2
22/33	Comp/Att	14/24
4.9	Yards per pass	7.6
4.0	Yards per rush	4.9
3	Turnovers	1
6-64	Penalties	9-104
32:48	Possession	27:12

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

ARIZ 1592

BAY 1585

Projected spread

ARIZ -2.7

incl. home edge

Model pick

ARIZ

58% to win

Market spread

ARIZ -6.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

BAY

3.8 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

58%

ARIZ · market 67%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1592, BAY Elo 1585 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -2.7 (58% to win) — 3.8 points clear of BAY's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

BAY2025 season · national rank shownARIZ

451.218th

Total yards / game

407.942nd

5.947th

Yards / play

5.855th

309.64th

Passing yards / game

255.236th

141.683rd

Rushing yards / game

152.775th

37.8%89th

3rd down %

41.0%54th

391.887th

Yards allowed / game

308.819th

40.9%91st

3rd down % allowed

34.1%25th

-13133rd

Turnover margin

+182nd

6.066th

Penalties / game

5.650th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

BAY		ARIZ
+5.3 (#54)	CORE overall	+12.4 (#33)
+6 / +0	offense / defense	+5 / -8
2.31	points / drive	2.61
2.85	allowed / drive	1.75
16%	three-and-outs	20%
+8	pass over expected	+5

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Nov 22, 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Arizona Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: ARIZ -2.7

The Model's Pick

Arizona

to win · 58%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadARIZ -2.7

Market67%

Game Leaders

Baylor

Pass Sawyer Robertson22/33, 162 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rush Caden Knighten17 car, 100 yds
Rec Josh Cameron6 rec, 71 yds, 1 TD

Arizona

Pass Noah Fifita14/25, 183 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Ismail Mahdi14 car, 93 yds, 1 TD
Rec Kris Hutson9 rec, 133 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

Arizona+-7.9 EPA
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #11 J.Mann at BAY34 #11 J.Mann return 34 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:27 PENALTY ARIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#42 D.Lolesio) 15 yards from BAY00 to BAY03 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt failed (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), End Of Play
Arizona+-3.8 EPA
(14:19) Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #2 T.Stukes at ARIZ00, Touchback
Arizona+-3.6 EPA
End of 2nd quarter.

BAYTeam statsARIZ

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Baylor vs. Arizona?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Baylor vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap

BAYTeam statsARIZ

How the model called it

What was the final score of Baylor vs. Arizona?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups