Baylor
5-5·Big 12· Elo 1585
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1592, BAY Elo 1585) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -2.7 (58% to win) — 3.8 points of value on BAY versus the market line of -6.5.
ARIZ up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Baylor 17, Arizona 41.
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #11 J.Mann at BAY34 #11 J.Mann return 34 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:27 PENALTY ARIZ UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#42 D.Lolesio) 15 yards from BAY00 to BAY03 #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt failed (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), End Of Play
(14:19) Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass intercepted by #2 T.Stukes at ARIZ00, Touchback
End of 2nd quarter.
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