Sat, Oct 25, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NIU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1297, BALL Elo 1055) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -12.1 (81% to win) — 5.6 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -6.5.
NIU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 7, Northern Illinois 21.
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 4th quarter.
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 53 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:41, 1ST DOWN #60 A.Glass kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #44 R.Pedro)
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst pass intercepted by #1 J.Lewis at BALL00, Touchback
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →