Huskie StadiumConference gameClosing line: NIU -6.5 · NIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NIU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Team stats
BALLthis game · better side highlightedNIU
275
Total yards
370136
Passing yards
65139
Rushing yards
30515
First downs
176-15 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NIU 1297
BALL 1055
Projected spread
NIU -12.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
NIU
81% to win
Market spread
NIU -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NIU
5.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
81%
NIU · market 67%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NIU Elo 1297, BALL Elo 1055) plus home-field advantage. That projects NIU -12.1 (81% to win) — 5.6 points of value on NIU versus the market line of -6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NIU (top)BALL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NIU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NIU pass offense (0.00 PPA) vs. BALL pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge BALL.
- BALL pass offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge NIU.
- BALL rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge NIU.
Drive-by-drive
BALL 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NIU 2/10 scoring drives
BALLPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 14Q1
NIUTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
BALLPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NIU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
NIU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Northern Illinois?
Ball State 7, Northern Illinois 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.