Ball State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsNIU
- Q4 13:59NIUDeAree Rogers 14 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Andrew Glass Kick)7–21
- Q3 7:26NIUJosh Holst 7 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:30BALLDrew Cassens 1 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:41NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 53 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NIU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 4.9
- BALL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassKiael Kelly 10/23, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKiael Kelly 27 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecTy Robinson 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassJosh Holst 6/11, 65 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChavon Wright 37 CAR, 166 YDS
- RecDeAree Rogers 3 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:26NIU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Holst rush right for 7 yards gain to the BALL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:30BALL +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #89 D.Cassens caught at NIU00, for 1 yard to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:26NIU +7%
#43 A.Saul punt 45 yards to the NIU29 fair catch by #6 D.Rogers at NIU29
- Q2 0:01BALL +5%
PENALTY BALL Delay Of Game 5 yards from BALL50 to BALL45. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Northern Illinois?
Ball State 7, Northern Illinois 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NIU) was correct.
| BALL | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 275 | Total yards | 370 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 65 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 305 |
| 15 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/23 | Comp/Att | 6/11 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 29:30 | Possession | 30:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:57 BALL punt on 4th & 1 at BALL 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:59NIUDeAree Rogers 14 Yd pass from Josh Holst (Andrew Glass Kick)7–21
- Q3 7:26NIUJosh Holst 7 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:30BALLDrew Cassens 1 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Carson Holmer Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:41NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 53 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1297, BALL Elo 1055 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -12.1 (79% to win) — 5.6 points clear of NIU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 24–24–1 · 45% have been one-possession games
| BALL | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.9 (#133) | CORE overall | -22.4 (#129) |
| -22 / +6 | offense / defense | -15 / +8 |
| 1.14 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →