Auburn
SEC· Elo 1681
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 33 |
| ARK | 0 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARK Elo 1617, AUB Elo 1681) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARK +0.2 (50% to win) — 2.7 points of value on AUB versus the market line of -2.5.
ARK up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Auburn 33, Arkansas 24.
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had AUB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK48, for 58 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:36, 1ST DOWN #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass intercepted by #13 K.Walker at ARK11 #13 K.Walker return 89 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:48 #80 S.Starzyk kick attempt good (H: #37 D.Bale, LS: #30 A.Ngo)
End of 2nd quarter.
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