Auburn vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AUBTeam statsARK
- Q4 1:06AUBAlex McPherson 37 Yd Field Goal 33–24
- Q4 6:23AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 9:15AUBRayshawn Pleasant 49 Yd Interception Return (Ashton Daniels Run for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q4 12:03AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 0:57ARKScott Starzyk 27 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q3 5:05AUBAlex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 10:21AUBAlex McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 0:48ARKKani Walker 89 Yd Interception Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:24ARKBraylen Russell 2 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–14
- Q2 8:36ARKRaylen Sharpe 58 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:05AUBAlex McPherson 36 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:52AUBCam Coleman 23 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAshton Daniels 6/8, 77 YDS
- RushJeremiah Cobb 28 CAR, 153 YDS
- RecEric Singleton Jr. 2 REC, 56 YDS
- PassTaylen Green 14/22, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushMike Washington Jr. 12 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecRohan Jones 3 REC, 127 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:15AUB +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass intercepted by #14 R.Pleasant at ARK49 #14 R.Pleasant return 49 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY ARK Personal Foul (#55 F.Carmon…
- Q4 6:23AUB +32%
#38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q2 5:24ARK +26%
#0 B.Russell rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 0:57ARK +21%
#80 S.Starzyk field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q2 8:36ARK +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Green pass complete short right to #6 R.Sharpe caught at ARK48, for 58 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:48ARK +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass intercepted by #13 K.Walker at ARK11 #13 K.Walker return 89 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Auburn vs. Arkansas?
Auburn 33, Arkansas 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AUB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 380 | Total yards | 331 |
| 150 | Passing yards | 268 |
| 230 | Rushing yards | 63 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/20 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 3-12 |
| 37:40 | Possession | 22:20 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:51 ARK punt on 4th & 14 at AUB 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:06AUBAlex McPherson 37 Yd Field Goal 33–24
- Q4 6:23AUBAlex McPherson 47 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 9:15AUBRayshawn Pleasant 49 Yd Interception Return (Ashton Daniels Run for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q4 12:03AUBAlex McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q3 0:57ARKScott Starzyk 27 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q3 5:05AUBAlex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal 16–21
- Q3 10:21AUBAlex McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 0:48ARKKani Walker 89 Yd Interception Return (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:24ARKBraylen Russell 2 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–14
- Q2 8:36ARKRaylen Sharpe 58 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:05AUBAlex McPherson 36 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:52AUBCam Coleman 23 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1617, AUB Elo 1681 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +0.2 (51% to win) — 2.7 points clear of AUB's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 21–13–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| AUB | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.6 (#30) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#37) |
| +2 / -12 | offense / defense | +20 / +9 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 3.48 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →