Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsKENN
- Q4 10:04ARSTKenyon Clay 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–28
- Q3 8:36KENNColeman Bennett 10 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–28
- Q3 12:03ARSTJaylen Raynor 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:02ARSTHunter Summers 28 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:10KENNAmari Odom 14 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:49KENNAlexander Diggs 7 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:32KENNGabriel Benyard 54 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 25/41, 226 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDevin Spencer 14 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecHunter Summers 8 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAmari Odom 25/34, 308 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAmari Odom 16 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGabriel Benyard 6 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:07ARST +32%
Jackson Waller punt for 52 yds, Gabriel Benyard returns for 10 yds to the KENN 35 Kennesaw State Penalty, personal foul (James Ziglor) to the KENN 18
- Q1 12:32KENN +17%
Gabriel Benyard 54 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)
- Q3 12:03ARST +17%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
- Q4 10:04ARST +16%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 6 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) (Clune Van Andel KICK)
- Q3 8:36KENN +15%
Coleman Bennett 10 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)
- Q1 8:49KENN +14%
Alexander Diggs 7 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State?
Arkansas State 21, Kennesaw State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
| ARST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 497 |
| 226 | Passing yards | 308 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 189 |
| 18 | First downs | 30 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/41 | Comp/Att | 25/34 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 7-68 |
| 26:35 | Possession | 33:25 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:09 KENN punt on 4th & 21 at ARST 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:04ARSTKenyon Clay 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)21–28
- Q3 8:36KENNColeman Bennett 10 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–28
- Q3 12:03ARSTJaylen Raynor 1 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:02ARSTHunter Summers 28 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:10KENNAmari Odom 14 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:49KENNAlexander Diggs 7 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:32KENNGabriel Benyard 54 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENN Elo 1200, ARST Elo 1257 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENN -0.1 (52% to win) — 4.6 points clear of KENN's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARST | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -3.9 (#76) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.14 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →