Fifth Third StadiumClosing line: ARST +-4.5 · KENN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| KENN | 21 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
Team stats
ARSTthis game · better side highlightedKENN
318
Total yards
507226
Passing yards
30892
Rushing yards
19918
First downs
304-15 · 27%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KENN 1200
ARST 1257
Projected spread
KENN -0.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
KENN
50% to win
Market spread
KENN +4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
KENN
4.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
50%
KENN · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENN Elo 1200, ARST Elo 1257) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -0.1 (50% to win) — 4.6 points of value on KENN versus the market line of +4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KENN (top)ARST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENN.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge ARST.
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge KENN.
Drive-by-drive
ARST 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KENN 4/13 scoring drives
ARSTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 15Q1
KENNDOWNS10 pl, 39 yds· own 40Q1
KENNTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
KENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State?
Arkansas State 21, Kennesaw State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.