Sat, Sep 20, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| KENN | 21 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENN Elo 1200, ARST Elo 1257) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -0.1 (50% to win) — 4.6 points of value on KENN versus the market line of +4.5.
KENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas State 21, Kennesaw State 28.
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 4 fumbled, recovered by ARST Gavin Ransaw
Gabriel Benyard 54 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Hunter Summers for 28 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
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