Jack Trice StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| ISU | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ISU 1597
ASU 1609
Projected spread
ISU -1.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
56% to win
Market spread
ISU -8
sportsbook line
Model edge
ASU
6.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
ISU · market 70%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ISU Elo 1597, ASU Elo 1609) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -1.9 (56% to win) — 6.1 points of value on ASU versus the market line of -8.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ISU (top)ASU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ISU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ASU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge ASU.
Drive-by-drive
ASU 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →ISU 4/15 scoring drives
ASUPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 5Q1
ISUMISS5 pl, 31 yds· own 38Q1
ASUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ASU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
ASU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Iowa State?
Arizona State 24, Iowa State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ISU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.