Arizona State vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsISU
- Q3 0:01ISUKyle Konrardy 35 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q3 7:47ASUJeff Sims 88 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–16
- Q2 1:01ISUBenjamin Brahmer 17 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy PAT failed)17–16
- Q2 4:55ASUChamon Metayer 18 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:43ASUJeff Sims 8 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–10
- Q2 12:45ISURocco Becht 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)3–10
- Q1 0:54ASUJesus Gomez 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:45ISUKyle Konrardy 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJeff Sims 13/24, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeff Sims 29 CAR, 228 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChamon Metayer 6 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRocco Becht 18/36, 186 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarson Hansen 18 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecChase Sowell 6 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:47ASU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims rush middle for 88 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 11:57ASU +24%
#31 K.Floyd punt 34 yards to the ISU38 fair catch by #23 C.Robbins at ISU38
- Q2 4:55ASU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims pass complete short right to #7 C.Metayer caught at ISU03, for 18 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 10:43ASU +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims rush left for 8 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 12:45ISU +19%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht rush right for 7 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:35ISU +17%
#31 K.Floyd punt 40 yards to the ISU07
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Iowa State?
Arizona State 24, Iowa State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ISU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 467 | Total yards | 336 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 290 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 18/37 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-119 | Penalties | 7-56 |
| 32:04 | Possession | 27:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:08 ASU punt on 4th & 2 at ASU 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:01ISUKyle Konrardy 35 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q3 7:47ASUJeff Sims 88 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–16
- Q2 1:01ISUBenjamin Brahmer 17 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy PAT failed)17–16
- Q2 4:55ASUChamon Metayer 18 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:43ASUJeff Sims 8 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–10
- Q2 12:45ISURocco Becht 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)3–10
- Q1 0:54ASUJesus Gomez 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:45ISUKyle Konrardy 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1597, ASU Elo 1609 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -1.9 (56% to win) — 6.1 points clear of ASU's market line of -8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#85 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #58 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| ASU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#51) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →