App State vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsCLT
- Q4 4:00APPAlex Sanchez 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)34–11
- Q4 10:25CLTE. Jai Mason 16 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Justin Olson Pass to Gus McGee for Two-Point Conversion)27–11
- Q3 4:27APPKanen Hamlett 19 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)27–3
- Q3 10:22APPDominic De Freitas 35 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 47 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 0:36APPJaden Barnes 10 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–3
- Q2 8:38APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:21CLTLiam Boyd 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and APP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassAJ Swann 31/46, 368 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRashod Dubinion 22 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Barnes 6 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConner Harrell 13/24, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushC.J. Stokes 15 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecJustin Olson 2 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:38APP +19%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q2 0:36APP +14%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q1 1:21CLT +10%
Liam Boyd 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 15:00CLT +8%
Charlotte Penalty, false start (Jesse Ramil) to the CLT 20
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Charlotte?
App State 34, Charlotte 11.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| APP | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 586 | Total yards | 218 |
| 404 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 182 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 32 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 33/50 | Comp/Att | 13/25 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-98 | Penalties | 7-54 |
| 33:58 | Possession | 26:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:25 CLT go for it on 4th & 6 at APP 16. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:00APPAlex Sanchez 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)34–11
- Q4 10:25CLTE. Jai Mason 16 Yd pass from Conner Harrell (Justin Olson Pass to Gus McGee for Two-Point Conversion)27–11
- Q3 4:27APPKanen Hamlett 19 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)27–3
- Q3 10:22APPDominic De Freitas 35 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 47 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 0:36APPJaden Barnes 10 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–3
- Q2 8:38APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–3
- Q1 1:21CLTLiam Boyd 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1254, APP Elo 1428 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CLT +7 (33% to win) — 3.5 points clear of CLT's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| APP | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 (#121) | CORE overall | -33.1 (#135) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | -23 / +10 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.98 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →