Alabama vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsSC
- Q4 0:34ALAGermie Bernard 25 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)29–22
- Q4 2:16ALAGermie Bernard 4 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Ty Simpson Pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)22–22
- Q4 10:00SCLaNorris Sellers 10 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)14–22
- Q3 1:38SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 14–15
- Q3 10:59SCNyck Harbor 54 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 1:45ALAJosh Cuevas 3 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–6
- Q2 4:23SCWilliam Joyce 34 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:17ALADaShawn Jones 18 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:32SCWilliam Joyce 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 24/43, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJam Miller 10 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecDaniel Hill 4 REC, 76 YDS
- PassLaNorris Sellers 18/32, 222 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLaNorris Sellers 18 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNyck Harbor 1 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:16ALA +60%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds for a TD (Ty Simpson pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 1:29ALA +45%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the SC 31
- Q4 10:00SC +40%
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds for a TD (William Joyce KICK)
- Q4 1:54SC +39%
Sellers, LaNorris pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA offside (Smith, James) 5 yards to the SC36, NO PLAY
- Q3 10:59SC +18%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 54 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 1:45ALA +18%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 3 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. South Carolina?
Alabama 29, South Carolina 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ALA | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 333 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 111 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/43 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-52 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 27:22 | Possession | 32:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:17 SC go for it on 4th & 12 at ALA 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:34ALAGermie Bernard 25 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)29–22
- Q4 2:16ALAGermie Bernard 4 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Ty Simpson Pass to Josh Cuevas for Two-Point Conversion)22–22
- Q4 10:00SCLaNorris Sellers 10 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)14–22
- Q3 1:38SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 14–15
- Q3 10:59SCNyck Harbor 54 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q2 1:45ALAJosh Cuevas 3 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–6
- Q2 4:23SCWilliam Joyce 34 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:17ALADaShawn Jones 18 Yd Interception Return (Conor Talty Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:32SCWilliam Joyce 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1630, ALA Elo 1991 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC +12 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 15–3 · Alabama has won 3 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| ALA | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →