Akron
1-3·Mid-American· Elo 1060
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| TOL | 14 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TOL Elo 1497, AKR Elo 1060) plus home-field advantage. That projects TOL -19.9 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TOL up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Akron 3, Toledo 45.
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Kalieb Osborne pass complete to Tashi Braceful for 36 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST down
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST down Akron Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jayme Motley-Simmons) to the TOL 11 for a 1ST down
Cam Macon run for 7 yds to the TOL 35 Cam Macon fumbled, recovered by AKR Nasir Bowers
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