Akron vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsTOL
- Q4 12:48TOLKalieb Osborne 21 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–45
- Q3 0:12TOLDylan Cunanan 40 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q2 0:23TOLEric Holley III 26 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–35
- Q2 1:56AKROwen Wiley 39 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 10:27TOLJunior Vandeross III 26 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:41TOLTucker Gleason 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:59TOLChip Trayanum 11 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:44TOLJunior Vandeross III 28 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TOL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassBrayden Roggow 7/12, 51 YDS
- RushJordan Gant 13 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecIsrael Polk 2 REC, 16 YDS
- PassTucker Gleason 16/19, 237 YDS, 3 TD
- RushChip Trayanum 11 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Vandeross III 9 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Toledo?
Akron 3, Toledo 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| AKR | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Total yards | 538 |
| 79 | Passing yards | 293 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 245 |
| 11 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 20/24 |
| 3.2 | Yards per pass | 12.2 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-16 | Penalties | 7-83 |
| 28:53 | Possession | 31:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:51 TOL punt on 4th & 2 at TOL 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:48TOLKalieb Osborne 21 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–45
- Q3 0:12TOLDylan Cunanan 40 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q2 0:23TOLEric Holley III 26 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)3–35
- Q2 1:56AKROwen Wiley 39 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 10:27TOLJunior Vandeross III 26 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:41TOLTucker Gleason 2 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:59TOLChip Trayanum 11 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:44TOLJunior Vandeross III 28 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1497, AKR Elo 1060 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -19.9 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 12–4 · 25% have been one-possession games
| AKR | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | +18.3 (#19) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →