Arkansas State vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsUL
- Q4 3:48ARSTTimmy McClain 10 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)19–55
- Q4 8:46ULChandler Fields 12 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–55
- Q3 0:34ULDre'lyn Washington 14 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–48
- Q3 5:57ULBill Davis 10 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–41
- Q3 8:52ARSTZak Wallace 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–34
- Q3 10:54ULKenneth Almendares 45 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q2 0:07ARSTAdam Jones 16 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q2 1:47ULBill Davis 13 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–31
- Q2 7:23ULZylan Perry 4 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–24
- Q2 12:15ULDre'lyn Washington 46 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:04ULKenneth Almendares 44 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:07ULHarvey Broussard 20 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 23/35, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJa'Quez Cross 14 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecCorey Rucker 6 REC, 73 YDS
- PassBen Wooldridge 17/26, 264 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDre Washington 8 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLance LeGendre 4 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 337 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:07UL +11%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 20 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?
Arkansas State 19, Louisiana 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
| ARST | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 579 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 301 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 278 |
| 27 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 8.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:17 ARST go for it on 4th & 11 at UL 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48ARSTTimmy McClain 10 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)19–55
- Q4 8:46ULChandler Fields 12 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–55
- Q3 0:34ULDre'lyn Washington 14 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–48
- Q3 5:57ULBill Davis 10 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)12–41
- Q3 8:52ARSTZak Wallace 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–34
- Q3 10:54ULKenneth Almendares 45 Yd Field Goal 6–34
- Q2 0:07ARSTAdam Jones 16 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q2 1:47ULBill Davis 13 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–31
- Q2 7:23ULZylan Perry 4 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–24
- Q2 12:15ULDre'lyn Washington 46 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–17
- Q1 3:04ULKenneth Almendares 44 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:07ULHarvey Broussard 20 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1554, ARST Elo 1286 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -13.1 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisiana leads 28–18 · Louisiana has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| ARST | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.0 (#113) | CORE overall | -0.6 (#70) |
| -1 / +13 | offense / defense | +4 / +4 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 3.01 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →