Houston vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsECU
- Q4 6:11HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)42–3
- Q3 4:45HOUMatthew Golden 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)35–3
- Q3 7:38ECUAndrew Conrad 21 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q3 11:50HOUMatthew Golden 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:55HOUBrandon Campbell 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)21–0
- Q2 9:24HOUChristian Trahan 9 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:23HOUNathaniel Dell 12 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassClayton Tune 32/44, 435 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushClayton Tune 6 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecTank Dell 9 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHolton Ahlers 15/30, 182 YDS
- RushKeaton Mitchell 14 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecJsi Hatfield 2 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:24HOU +19%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
- Q1 10:23HOU +19%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
- Q2 5:55HOU +11%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. East Carolina?
Houston 42, East Carolina 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ECU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 515 | Total yards | 315 |
| 435 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 27 | First downs | 13 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 32/44 | Comp/Att | 17/35 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 30:42 | Possession | 29:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:02 ECU go for it on 4th & 8 at HOU 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.53 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:11HOUTa'Zhawn Henry 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)42–3
- Q3 4:45HOUMatthew Golden 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)35–3
- Q3 7:38ECUAndrew Conrad 21 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q3 11:50HOUMatthew Golden 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:55HOUBrandon Campbell 5 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)21–0
- Q2 9:24HOUChristian Trahan 9 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:23HOUNathaniel Dell 12 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Kyle Ramsey Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1587, HOU Elo 1517 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU -5.2 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #75 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Houston leads 9–7 · Houston has won 4 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| HOU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.8 (#50) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#52) |
| +9 / +5 | offense / defense | +6 / +2 |
| 3.11 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →