App State vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsTA&M
- Q4 8:05APPMichael Hughes 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 2:20TA&MDevon Achane 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Caden Davis Kick)14–14
- Q3 2:34APPHenry Pearson 9 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:37TA&MDevon Achane 26 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:56APPAhmani Marshall 4 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TA&M played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and APP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassChase Brice 15/30, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCamerun Peoples 19 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecDashaun Davis 4 REC, 39 YDS
- PassHaynes King 13/20, 97 YDS
- RushDe'Von Achane 10 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEvan Stewart 5 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:34APP +32%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
- Q3 2:20TA&M +29%
Michael Hughes kickoff for 60 yds, Devon Achane return for 95 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)
- Q4 3:35APP +27%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 34
- Q4 8:05APP +21%
Michael Hughes 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:37TA&M +20%
Devon Achane 26 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)
- Q2 14:56APP +20%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Texas A&M?
App State 17, Texas A&M 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TA&M, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| APP | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 180 |
| 134 | Passing yards | 97 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 22 | First downs | 9 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/30 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 41:29 | Possession | 18:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:54 APP punt on 4th & 1 at APP 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:05APPMichael Hughes 29 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q3 2:20TA&MDevon Achane 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Caden Davis Kick)14–14
- Q3 2:34APPHenry Pearson 9 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:37TA&MDevon Achane 26 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)7–7
- Q2 14:56APPAhmani Marshall 4 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1708, APP Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -4.8 (64% to win) — 13.2 points clear of APP's market line of -18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #13 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #4 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →| APP | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 (#63) | CORE overall | +6.3 (#41) |
| +6 / +6 | offense / defense | +0 / -6 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 1.80 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →