Texas vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsARK
- Q4 2:26TEXCasey Thompson 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–40
- Q4 8:27ARKAJ Green 30 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)14–40
- Q4 13:33TEXCasey Thompson 5 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–33
- Q3 1:50ARKRaheim Sanders 26 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)7–33
- Q3 2:08ARKCam Little 22 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q3 8:16ARKTrelon Smith 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)7–23
- Q3 10:17TEXBijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–16
- Q2 3:00ARKCam Little 44 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 7:34ARKCam Little 24 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 10:55ARKDominique Johnson 5 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:03ARKCam Little 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassHudson Card 8/15, 61 YDS
- RushBijan Robinson 19 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Worthy 2 REC, 41 YDS
- PassKJ Jefferson 14/19, 138 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTrelon Smith 12 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyson Morris 1 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:55ARK +25%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
- Q3 10:17TEX +21%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
- Q3 8:16ARK +18%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
- Q2 7:34ARK +13%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 2:03ARK +10%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:00ARK +10%
Cam Little 44 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Arkansas?
Texas 21, Arkansas 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 257 | Total yards | 471 |
| 118 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 333 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 14/19 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 28:57 | Possession | 31:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:23 ARK punt on 4th & 1 at ARK 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:26TEXCasey Thompson 2 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)21–40
- Q4 8:27ARKAJ Green 30 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)14–40
- Q4 13:33TEXCasey Thompson 5 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–33
- Q3 1:50ARKRaheim Sanders 26 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)7–33
- Q3 2:08ARKCam Little 22 Yd Field Goal 7–26
- Q3 8:16ARKTrelon Smith 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)7–23
- Q3 10:17TEXBijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–16
- Q2 3:00ARKCam Little 44 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 7:34ARKCam Little 24 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 10:55ARKDominique Johnson 5 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)0–10
- Q1 2:03ARKCam Little 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1470, TEX Elo 1801 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +10.8 (25% to win) — 4.8 points clear of TEX's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #77 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #25 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →Texas leads 57–23 · Texas has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| TEX | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.6 (#46) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#8) |
| +8 / -1 | offense / defense | +12 / -8 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 2.59 |
| 2.52 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →