Syracuse vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SYRTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 5:15SYRCooper Lutz 11 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)29–9
- Q4 11:21OHIOStephen Johnson 25 Yd Field Goal 22–9
- Q3 0:40SYRSean Tucker 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)22–6
- Q3 6:23SYRAndre Szmyt 20 Yd Field Goal 15–6
- Q2 0:19OHIOStephen Johnson 30 Yd Field Goal 12–6
- Q2 6:42SYRAndre Szmyt 29 Yd Field Goal 12–3
- Q2 13:33OHIOStephen Johnson 22 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 6:24SYRTeam Safety9–0
- Q1 6:37SYRTommy DeVito 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTommy DeVito 11/17, 92 YDS
- RushSean Tucker 25 CAR, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAnthony Queeley 3 REC, 39 YDS
- PassKurtis Rourke 21/28, 142 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDe'Montre Tuggle 16 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJerome Buckner 7 REC, 102 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSYR up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:27SYR +22%
A.Szmyt 20 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-A.Bolinsky, Holder-M.Midkiff
- Q1 6:40SYR +18%
T.DeVito rushed to OHI End Zone for 6 yards. T.DeVito for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 0:45SYR +15%
S.Tucker rushed to OHI End Zone for 6 yards. S.Tucker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:48SYR +12%
A.Szmyt 29 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-A.Bolinsky, Holder-M.Midkiff
- Q2 0:23OHIO +9%
S.Johnson 30 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-J.Holloway, Holder-J.Wilson
- Q3 2:21SYR +8%
S.Tucker rushed to OHI 45 for 28 yards. Tackled by J.Hudson; B.Houston at OHI 45
FAQ
What was the final score of Syracuse vs. Ohio?
Syracuse 29, Ohio 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SYR | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 346 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 212 |
| 283 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 12/18 | Comp/Att | 23/31 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 28:23 | Possession | 31:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:27 SYR field goal on 4th & 2 at OHIO 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:15SYRCooper Lutz 11 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)29–9
- Q4 11:21OHIOStephen Johnson 25 Yd Field Goal 22–9
- Q3 0:40SYRSean Tucker 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)22–6
- Q3 6:23SYRAndre Szmyt 20 Yd Field Goal 15–6
- Q2 0:19OHIOStephen Johnson 30 Yd Field Goal 12–6
- Q2 6:42SYRAndre Szmyt 29 Yd Field Goal 12–3
- Q2 13:33OHIOStephen Johnson 22 Yd Field Goal 9–3
- Q1 6:24SYRTeam Safety9–0
- Q1 6:37SYRTommy DeVito 6 Yd Run (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1564, SYR Elo 1358 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -10.6 (77% to win) — 8.6 points clear of OHIO's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #107 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| SYR | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.9 (#67) | CORE overall | -14.4 (#105) |
| +1 / -1 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 2.78 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →