Colorado State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsFRES
- Q4 0:48CSUMax Poduska 25 Yd Field Goal 41–31
- Q4 3:29CSUWarren Jackson 11 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Max Poduska Kick)38–31
- Q4 12:06FRESCesar Silva 35 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 14:21CSUMarcus McElroy 4 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)31–28
- Q3 2:18FRESRonnie Rivers 7 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)24–28
- Q3 8:35CSUMax Poduska 39 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 11:31FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:23FRESRonnie Rivers 7 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:59CSUMarcus McElroy 9 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)21–7
- Q1 2:08FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:21CSUPatrick O'Brien 1 Yd Run (Cayden Camper Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:16CSUTrey McBride 69 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Cayden Camper Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassPatrick O'Brien 23/42, 322 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcus McElroy Jr. 18 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWarren Jackson 9 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJorge Reyna 20/37, 200 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRonnie Rivers 14 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRonnie Rivers 4 REC, 42 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:29CSU +71%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Warren Jackson for 11 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
- Q4 14:21CSU +33%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
- Q3 2:18FRES +23%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q2 11:59CSU +23%
Marcus McElroy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Max Poduska KICK)
- Q3 11:31FRES +21%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q2 7:23FRES +20%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Fresno State?
Colorado State 41, Fresno State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 500 | Total yards | 388 |
| 322 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 188 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 23/42 | Comp/Att | 20/37 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-53 | Penalties | 9-74 |
| 33:25 | Possession | 26:35 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:48CSUMax Poduska 25 Yd Field Goal 41–31
- Q4 3:29CSUWarren Jackson 11 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Max Poduska Kick)38–31
- Q4 12:06FRESCesar Silva 35 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q4 14:21CSUMarcus McElroy 4 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)31–28
- Q3 2:18FRESRonnie Rivers 7 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)24–28
- Q3 8:35CSUMax Poduska 39 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 11:31FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:23FRESRonnie Rivers 7 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:59CSUMarcus McElroy 9 Yd Run (Max Poduska Kick)21–7
- Q1 2:08FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:21CSUPatrick O'Brien 1 Yd Run (Cayden Camper Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:16CSUTrey McBride 69 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Cayden Camper Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1622, CSU Elo 1263 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -16.8 (86% to win) — 3.3 points clear of FRES's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #23 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Colorado State leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| CSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.6 (#72) | CORE overall | -0.5 (#66) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / +2 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.38 |
| 2.53 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →