TCU vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsOKST
- Q4 2:37TCUDarius Anderson 42 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)44–31
- Q4 3:03OKSTJustice Hill 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)37–31
- Q4 9:44OKSTMason Rudolph 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)37–24
- Q4 12:03TCUJonathan Song 31 Yd Field Goal 37–17
- Q3 4:34TCUSewo Olonilua 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)34–17
- Q3 8:37OKSTDillon Stoner 14 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)27–17
- Q3 11:59TCUDarius Anderson 6 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)27–10
- Q2 4:46OKSTMatt Ammendola 29 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 7:15TCUJohn Diarse 9 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)20–7
- Q2 14:28TCUDarius Anderson 28 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)13–7
- Q1 2:15OKSTJames Washington 86 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:45TCUJonathan Song 31 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:46TCUJonathan Song 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKenny Hill 22/33, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarius Anderson 26 CAR, 160 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJaelan Austin 1 REC, 43 YDS
- PassMason Rudolph 22/41, 398 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJustice Hill 25 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJames Washington 6 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:15TCU +27%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
- Q3 4:34TCU +19%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
- Q3 8:37OKST +19%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q2 14:28TCU +19%
Darius Anderson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
- Q3 11:59TCU +19%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
- Q1 2:15OKST +17%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 86 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Oklahoma State?
TCU 44, Oklahoma State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TCU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 466 | Total yards | 499 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 398 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 32 | First downs | 26 |
| 11-19 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 22/42 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 8-77 |
| 39:04 | Possession | 20:56 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:37TCUDarius Anderson 42 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)44–31
- Q4 3:03OKSTJustice Hill 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)37–31
- Q4 9:44OKSTMason Rudolph 1 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)37–24
- Q4 12:03TCUJonathan Song 31 Yd Field Goal 37–17
- Q3 4:34TCUSewo Olonilua 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)34–17
- Q3 8:37OKSTDillon Stoner 14 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)27–17
- Q3 11:59TCUDarius Anderson 6 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)27–10
- Q2 4:46OKSTMatt Ammendola 29 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 7:15TCUJohn Diarse 9 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Jonathan Song Kick)20–7
- Q2 14:28TCUDarius Anderson 28 Yd Run (Jonathan Song Kick)13–7
- Q1 2:15OKSTJames Washington 86 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Matt Ammendola Kick)6–7
- Q1 2:45TCUJonathan Song 31 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:46TCUJonathan Song 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1937, TCU Elo 1700 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -11.9 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #36 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #28 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 17–15–2 · TCU has won 2 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| TCU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.2 (#11) | CORE overall | +24.9 (#9) |
| +8 / -14 | offense / defense | +20 / -5 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 3.28 |
| 1.45 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →