Iowa State vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsOU
- Q4 2:19ISUAllen Lazard 25 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick)38–31
- Q4 7:18OUDimitri Flowers 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)31–31
- Q4 12:46ISUTrever Ryen 57 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick)31–24
- Q3 2:07ISUMarchie Murdock 28 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Kyle Kempt Pass to Allen Lazard for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q3 9:45ISUGarrett Owens 42 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q2 0:04ISUGarrett Owens 32 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 2:43OUBaker Mayfield 13 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:12ISUDavid Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:53OUAustin Seibert 25 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 1:20ISUGarrett Owens 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:49OUCeeDee Lamb 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:35OUTrey Sermon 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKyle Kempt 18/24, 343 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDavid Montgomery 17 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrever Ryen 4 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBaker Mayfield 24/33, 306 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTrey Sermon 18 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecDimitri Flowers 7 REC, 95 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:19ISU +57%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Allen Lazard for 25 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
- Q4 12:46ISU +48%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Trever Ryen for 57 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
- Q4 7:18OU +33%
Dimitri Flowers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
- Q3 2:07ISU +25%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Kempt pass to Allen Lazard for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 7:18ISU +18%
David Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 25
- Q4 7:18OU +13%
Kyle Kempt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 12 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Oklahoma?
Iowa State 38, Oklahoma 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ISU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 513 |
| 368 | Passing yards | 323 |
| 81 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 21 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/27 | Comp/Att | 25/34 |
| 13.6 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-17 | Penalties | 6-59 |
| 28:57 | Possession | 31:03 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:19ISUAllen Lazard 25 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick)38–31
- Q4 7:18OUDimitri Flowers 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)31–31
- Q4 12:46ISUTrever Ryen 57 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Garrett Owens Kick)31–24
- Q3 2:07ISUMarchie Murdock 28 Yd pass from Kyle Kempt (Kyle Kempt Pass to Allen Lazard for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q3 9:45ISUGarrett Owens 42 Yd Field Goal 16–24
- Q2 0:04ISUGarrett Owens 32 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 2:43OUBaker Mayfield 13 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:12ISUDavid Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Garrett Owens Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:53OUAustin Seibert 25 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 1:20ISUGarrett Owens 25 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:49OUCeeDee Lamb 15 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:35OUTrey Sermon 23 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1989, ISU Elo 1552 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -19.9 (90% to win) — 11.1 points clear of ISU's market line of -31. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #4 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #4 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 80–7–2 · Oklahoma has won 4 straight · 24% have been one-possession games
| ISU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.6 (#31) | CORE overall | +36.4 (#3) |
| +4 / -7 | offense / defense | +34 / -3 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 3.71 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →