Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsGASO
- Q4 4:01GASOAlex Hanks 25 Yd Field Goal 17–43
- Q4 6:32GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)17–40
- Q4 10:51WMUCarrington Thompson 13 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Zach Terrell Pass to Jeremiah Mullinax for Two-Point Conversion)17–33
- Q3 9:31GASOAlex Hanks 22 Yd Field Goal 9–33
- Q3 14:13GASOMatt Breida 70 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)9–30
- Q2 0:28WMUDaniel Braverman 7 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman PAT failed)9–23
- Q2 3:38GASOMatt Breida 34 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–23
- Q2 5:06GASOMatt Breida 4 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–16
- Q2 11:10GASOTeam Safety 3–9
- Q1 3:21GASOMatt Breida 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:40WMUAndrew Haldeman 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassZach Terrell 24/36, 227 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJarvion Franklin 17 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecDaniel Braverman 13 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- PassFavian Upshaw 1/4, 7 YDS
- RushMatt Breida 11 CAR, 176 YDS, 4 TD
- RecBJ Johnson III 1 REC, 7 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:21GASO +19%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q2 5:06GASO +18%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q2 3:38GASO +12%
Matt Breida run for 34 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q2 0:28WMU +8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT MISSED)
- Q1 7:40WMU +8%
Andrew Haldeman 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 14:13GASO +8%
Matt Breida run for 70 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern?
Western Michigan 17, Georgia Southern 43.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WMU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 252 | Total yards | 420 |
| 227 | Passing yards | 7 |
| 25 | Rushing yards | 413 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 1/4 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 1.8 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 7.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-37 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:11 | Possession | 29:49 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:13 GASO punt on 4th & 4 at WMU 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:01GASOAlex Hanks 25 Yd Field Goal 17–43
- Q4 6:32GASOLA Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)17–40
- Q4 10:51WMUCarrington Thompson 13 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Zach Terrell Pass to Jeremiah Mullinax for Two-Point Conversion)17–33
- Q3 9:31GASOAlex Hanks 22 Yd Field Goal 9–33
- Q3 14:13GASOMatt Breida 70 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)9–30
- Q2 0:28WMUDaniel Braverman 7 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman PAT failed)9–23
- Q2 3:38GASOMatt Breida 34 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–23
- Q2 5:06GASOMatt Breida 4 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–16
- Q2 11:10GASOTeam Safety 3–9
- Q1 3:21GASOMatt Breida 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:40WMUAndrew Haldeman 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1374, WMU Elo 1451 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +0.7 (49% to win) — 4.3 points clear of GASO's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #72 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| WMU | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.0 (#54) | CORE overall | +7.3 (#45) |
| +11 / +6 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.91 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -30 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →