San José State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsNEV
- Q4 6:34NEVNEVADA 44 yard field goal GOOD.16–38
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–35
- Q3 7:02NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–28
- Q3 7:02NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–27
- Q2 0:00SJSUSAN JOSE ST 50 yard field goal GOOD.16–21
- Q2 3:32NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.13–21
- Q2 3:32NEVNEVADA pass complete for a touchdown.13–20
- Q2 7:22SJSUSAN JOSE ST 44 yard field goal GOOD.13–14
- Q2 11:35NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.10–14
- Q2 11:35NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.10–13
- Q1 1:20SJSUSAN JOSE ST Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 1:20SJSUSAN JOSE ST pass complete for a touchdown.9–7
- Q1 7:19SJSUSAN JOSE ST 47 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 10:42NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:42NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SJSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassDavid Fales 28/43, 326 YDS, 1 TD
- RushThomas Tucker 7 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecChandler Jones 6 REC, 77 YDS
- PassCody Fajardo 21/28, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCody Fajardo 14 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrandon Wimberly 11 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:32NEV +20%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Brandon Wimberly for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:02NEV +19%
Don Jackson rush for 39 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:35NEV +18%
Kendall Brock rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:20SJSU +16%
David Fales pass complete to Billy Freeman for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:42NEV +16%
Kendall Brock rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:00SJSU +10%
Austin Lopez 50 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Nevada?
San José State 16, Nevada 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SJSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SJSU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 482 |
| 326 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 58 | Rushing yards | 276 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/45 | Comp/Att | 21/28 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 34:51 | Possession | 30:35 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:28 SJSU go for it on 4th & 6 at SJSU 20. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:34NEVNEVADA 44 yard field goal GOOD.16–38
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–35
- Q3 3:08NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–35
- Q3 7:02NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.16–28
- Q3 7:02NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.16–27
- Q2 0:00SJSUSAN JOSE ST 50 yard field goal GOOD.16–21
- Q2 3:32NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.13–21
- Q2 3:32NEVNEVADA pass complete for a touchdown.13–20
- Q2 7:22SJSUSAN JOSE ST 44 yard field goal GOOD.13–14
- Q2 11:35NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.10–14
- Q2 11:35NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.10–13
- Q1 1:20SJSUSAN JOSE ST Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 1:20SJSUSAN JOSE ST pass complete for a touchdown.9–7
- Q1 7:19SJSUSAN JOSE ST 47 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 10:42NEVNEVADA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 10:42NEVNEVADA rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1297, SJSU Elo 1437 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +3.2 (43% to win) — 3.8 points clear of NEV's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #63 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Nevada leads 21–8 · 38% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →