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Syracuse Orange

ACC·1-1·
Elo
1288#117
SP+
2.7#60
FPI
3.5
AP
NR
Next@ Pittsburgh · Wk 3Win prob 24%Model +11.1
Talent #35 (745.6)Recruiting class #3535% production returning

Roster · 111 players

FR 48SO 22JR 23SR 18
#PlayerPosClHtWt
9Steve AngeliQBSR6'3"212
10Zaid LottQBFR6'4"220
12Amari OdomQBJR6'4"205
13Joseph FilardiQBSO6'1"195
16Malachi NelsonQBJR6'3"193
17Rich BelinQBSO6'0"195
21Danny LauterQBJR6'3"220
3Davion KerrRBSO6'1"190
4Ju'Juan JohnsonRBJR6'0"210
20Tylik HillRBSO5'9"205
22Ahmad MillerRBJR6'0"207
23Shavane Anderson Jr.RBFR6'1"200
28Malachi ColemanRBFR5'10"190
2Umari HatcherWRSR6'3"185
5Calvin Russell IIIWRFR6'5"195
7Darien WilliamsWRSO6'0"185
8Tyshawn RussellWRJR5'11"195
11Cole WeaverWRJR6'3"220
13Matthew OuttenWRFR6'1"215
14Zamondre MerriweatherWRJR6'3"210
15Amare' GoughWRFR6'1"185
17Elijah MooreWRSO6'4"204
18Phoenix HenriquezWRFR6'2"195
83Julian McFaddenWRFR5'11"190
85BJ GarrettWRFR6'3"190
86Justus Ross-SimmonsWRSR6'3"210
87Nate EdwardsWRSO6'4"180
88Terrell WilfongWRFR6'6"185
0David ClementTESR6'6"260
19Daunte BacheyieTESO6'5"210
80Carter BashirTEFR6'5"255
81Noah MeyersTEJR6'5"240
84Elijah Washington-BakerTESO6'7"245
87Wyatt BowmanTEFR6'5"235
50Kahlil StewartOLFR6'4"330
53Ted OlsenOLJR6'2"285
55Zach RiceOLSR6'5"320
57Javeion CooperOLFR6'5"285
58David NdukweOLSR6'6"325
60Naquil BetrandOLJR6'6"320
61Joseph WhiteOLFR6'5"260
62Jackson IakOLFR6'4"300
63Brayden CharneyOLFR6'6"290
64Skylar HarveyOLFR6'7"330
65Adam BoeheimOLSO6'4"285
66Shemaj HenryOLFR6'8"320
67D'Joni ScatliffeOLFR6'7"315
69Oluwafunto AkinshiloOLSR6'5"325
70Kardiear ShepherdOLFR6'7"310
71Jayden MannOLFR6'4"315
73Vito ShevchenkoOLSO6'7"310
74Matthew HawnOLFR6'6"310
75Trevion MackOLJR6'6"320
76Byron WashingtonOLSO6'7"400
77Kam PringleOLSO6'8"335
78Joe CruzOLSR6'5"315
79Travis Brown-MillerOLSO6'6"330
11Nissi OgbeborDLSO6'6"300
15Nathan NyandoroDLSO6'6"270
16Jarius RodgersDLFR6'4"225
17Kamron WilsonDLFR6'5"227
30Tunmise AdeleyeDLSR6'4"275
45Clark CallowayDLSO6'4"280
77Jaylen PrayDLFR6'6"290
88Elijah CrawfordDLFR6'4"285
90Kordae HoustonDLFR6'4"285
92Rashard PerryDLSR6'3"295
93Alex HaskellDLFR6'4"275
94Walt Frazier Jr.DLFR6'3"305
95Dillan FontusDLSR6'6"292
98Jartavius FlounoyDLSO6'1"325
99Isaiah HastingsDLSR6'4"310
2Zyian Moultrie-GoddardLBJR6'0"230
5Antoine DeslauriersLBSO6'1"235
6Chris D'AppoloniaLBJR6'3"240
10Gary Bryant IIILBSR6'1"228
14Keyshawn JohnsonLBSR6'3"230
18David OmopariolaLBJR6'3"260
23Trey DudleyLBFR6'1"230
33Gemaus SackieLBFR6'0"210
42Maurice MedleyLBFR6'3"205
43Garvin St. JohnLBSO6'0"235
49Josh KubalaLBSR6'2"230
82Jamie TrembleLBJR6'4"222
0Braheem Long Jr.DBJR6'0"185
1Demetres Samuel Jr.DBSO6'1"195
3Davien KerrDBJR6'1"190
4Chase GeterDBFR6'1"190
7Nazir WardDBJR6'0"185
8Tedarius HughesDBFR6'3"180
9Jai Eugene Jr.DBJR6'1"202
12Chris PealDBJR6'1"200
13Amare SnowdenDBJR6'4"210
19Cornell PerryDBSR6'1"190
20Rayshon AndrewsDBFR6'4"195
22Ziyyon BredellDBFR6'0"185
24Ibn-Wadu MuhammadDBFR5'11"196
25Cam Hairston-TaylorDBFR6'0"180
26Darnell Stokes Jr.DBFR6'2"185
27Javon LawrenceDBFR6'1"180
29Terrance JohnsonDBFR6'2"170
31Marcus Washington Jr.DBSR6'1"200
34Nate PraterDBSR5'9"180
38James TrotterDBFR6'0"185
39Bradley ChandlerDBFR5'10"180
40Shay BarkerPKFR6'2"190
47Tripp WoodyPKSO5'9"190
41Jimmy GreggPFR6'1"195
46Mateja PavlovichPFR6'2"220
21Fran Brown Jr.LSJR5'11"220
37Tim SchwerhaLSFR6'1"210

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
42.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
12.0
scoring defense
Differential
+30.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
474.5#37
Yards / play
5.8#79
Passing yards / game
296.5#34
Rushing yards / game
178.0#60
First downs / game
29.5#11
3rd down %
51.7%#34
4th down %
50.0%#67
Time of possession
33:22#31
Defense
Yards allowed / game
204.0#21
Yards / play allowed
3.4#16
Pass yards allowed / game
140.5#36
Rush yards allowed / game
63.5#19
3rd down % allowed
30.8%#50
Sacks
6#12
Tackles for loss
17#7
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
0#66
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
3#95
Penalties / game
13.5#137
Penalty yards / game
128.5#138

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Syracuse is in year 3 under Fran Brown. The way in is 130th at keeping a clean pocket, and they are 127th at running it.

Syracuse has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected soft spots

  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #130
    projected
  • Offenserunning it
    #127
    projected
  • Offensethe push the line gets
    #127
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
3.98.1
projected final record (now 11)
Exp. wins left
2.9
of 10 games
Bowl odds
12%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
59%
vs North Carolina
Toughest
4%
vs Virginia

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 4-8 (29%)Bowl eligible 12% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBSteven Angeli
+15.0 EPA
WRUmari Hatcher, Zamondre Merriweather +6
+13.1 EPA
RBJu'Juan Johnson, Ahmad Miller +2
+10.4 EPA
TEDavid Clement, Noah Meyers +2
+9.3 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
EPA +15.00.202/play74 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.2145th#76
Def-0.0982nd#26
Explosiveness
Off1.3976th#34
Def0.9693rd#10
Field position
Off64.314th#119
Def74.732nd#94
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.1651st#68
Def1.8983rd#24
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 3
Margin 0

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
Defense
Off · pass
0.2840th#83
Off · rush
0.2569th#44

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2566th#47
Def-0.1982nd#25
Passing
Off0.2840th#83
Def-0.0185th#22

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.20#54
2nd-level / open-field
1.38 / 1.91
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 15.1%
Havoc — total (def)
20.3%#43
Havoc — front 7 / DB
16.3% / 4.1%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.08
Def-0.06
Pass downs
Off0.44
Def-0.13

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.02#940.26#620.66#61
Defense-0.24#320.04#590.03#20

Elo Trajectory

New HampshireFinal
Elo rating 12881284-4 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.3567th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2695th
  • Offense success rate53%73rd
  • Defense success rate allowed27%83rd

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs54%64th
  • Offense success — passing downs47%82nd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs31%82nd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs21%64th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.369th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed0.8996th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.053rd
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.374th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.574th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.688th
  • Offense highlight yards1.672nd
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.716th
  • Offense power success0.8874th
  • Defense power success allowed0.7548th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1555th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2364th

Third down

  • Third down conversion67%96th
  • Third down distance faced6.366th
  • Third down conversion allowed36%52nd
  • Third down distance forced7.962nd

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.2672nd
  • Net success rate — second half0.2480th

Roster

  • Returning usage29%33rd
  • Returning EPA80.141st
  • Team talent composite74675th
  • Recruiting class rank35.075th
  • Recruiting class points22575th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.213#76 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.276#83
Rush EPA/play
+0.247#47
Explosiveness
1.391#34
Pts/opportunity
4.16#68
Success rate
41.9%

Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.029 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.087#26 · top 20%
Havoc rate (total)
20.3%#43
Front-7 havoc
16.3%
DB havoc
4.1%
Big play rate allowed
0.963#10
Success rate allowed
32.9%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

42.0 PPG offense, 12.0 allowed — +30.0 margin/game
Points per game
42.0
Points allowed/game
12.0
Scoring margin/game
+30.0
Turnover margin
+0won 3 · lost 3
Production returning
35%
Talent rank (247)
#35

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE45thEXPLOSIVENESS76thFINISHING51thFIELD POS14thDEFENSE82thHAVOC69th50th100th
Offense
45th
Explosiveness
76th
Finishing
51th
Field Pos
14th
Defense
82th
Havoc
69th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-6.5
#95
Offense
-5.7
#111
Defense
+0.8
#78
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Syracuse is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Syracuse in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Texas A&MSP+ +23.9
Off EPA/play +0.224Def EPA/play -0.097Elo 1849
Match
99%
TulsaSP+ -2.3
Off EPA/play +0.186Def EPA/play -0.071Elo 1268
Match
98%
ArkansasSP+ +3.3
Off EPA/play +0.176Def EPA/play -0.075Elo 1547
Match
98%
OklahomaSP+ +21.7
Off EPA/play +0.175Def EPA/play -0.099Elo 1799
Match
98%
Texas TechSP+ +18.9
Off EPA/play +0.253Def EPA/play -0.125Elo 1870
Match
97%
DelawareSP+ -7.6
Off EPA/play +0.250Def EPA/play -0.032Elo 1404
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 20152026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -9.8, #93 of 1282016: -6.5, #90 of 1282017: -4.9, #80 of 1302018: +5.0, #44 of 1302019: -15.7, #111 of 1302020: -23.3, #118 of 1242021: +1.9, #67 of 1302022: +2.7, #59 of 1312023: -4.1, #83 of 1332024: +2.2, #60 of 1342025: -20.9, #127 of 1362026: -6.5, #95 of 138
20152026
Now -6.5 · #95 of 138Best +5.0 in 2018Worst -23.3 in 2020

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20253-91-7
25%
2.8+0.2
202410-35-3
77%
6.1+3.9
20236-72-6
46%
6.1-0.1
20227-64-4
54%
6.2+0.8
20215-72-6
42%
6.6-1.6
20201-101-9
9%
1.4-0.4
20195-72-6
42%
4.4+0.6
201810-36-2
77%
10.5-0.5
20174-82-6
33%
5.1-1.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.7%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 4.7-7.4.

If they finish with…

43%
2 losses
3.6%
3 losses
0.2%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.1 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 43% where the average ACC team is 44%.
  • The ACC takes 1.54 bids in an average season, and four or more in 0.7%.

Syracuse’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk13vs Notre Dame5.7
  • wk6at Virginia2.9
  • wk3at Pittsburgh2.9
  • wk9vs SMU2.2
  • wk7vs Louisville2.1
  • wk8at North Carolina1.9

Who to root for

Games Syracuse is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk7Florida State over Miami0.6
  • wk3Wake Forest over Miami0.4
  • wk13Stanford over SMU0.3
  • wk9Minnesota over Indiana0.3
  • wk13Navy over Charlotte0.3
  • wk11Rutgers over Nebraska0.3
The full playoff picture →

ACC

0-0 in league play, projected 2.9-6.112 of 17 by title odds
0.3%
Wins the ACC
1.4%
Reaches the title game

The ACC sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 37% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6Syracuse at Virginia1.5
  • wk3Syracuse at Pittsburgh1.4
  • wk13Notre Dame at Syracuse1.3
  • wk4Central Michigan at Miami1.2

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole ACC race →

If not the playoff, then

33%
Bowl eligible
31%
Placed in a bowl
0.7%
In the playoff
69%
Season over in November

Syracuse is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Fenway Bowl4.6%
  • Military Bowl4.5%
  • Pinstripe Bowl3.8%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl3.2%
  • Birmingham Bowl2.8%
  • Sun Bowl2.6%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent Syracuse a player since 2010 — 20 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Syracuse's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
American HeritageFL51
Miami NorthwesternFL50
DwyerFL30
Miami SouthridgeFL20
MiddletownOH20
University SchoolFL20
Friendship AcademyDC10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.