Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Katin HouserPassing453 yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
Ca'Lil ValentineRushing144 yds · 1 TD · 5.0 avg
Collin DixonReceiving17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD
Matthew BaileyTackles12 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 117 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Carson Boyd | QB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | St. Louis, MO |
| 4 | Katin Houser | QB | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Anaheim, CA |
| 7 | Michael Clayton II | QB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Orlando, FL |
| 12 | Dane Eisenmenger | QB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Tolono, IL |
| 5 | Ca'Lil Valentine | RB | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Hayward, CA |
| 20 | John Forster | RB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Montvale, NJ |
| 21 | Aidan Laughery | RB | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Gibson City, IL |
| 22 | Cedric Wyche II | RB | FR | 5'10" | 215 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 23 | Jordan Anderson | RB | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Naperville, IL |
| 24 | Javari Barnett | RB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Tampa, FL |
| 25 | Nelsyn Wheeler | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Grand Island, NE |
| 27 | Corey Rashad | RB | JR | 5'8" | 185 | Chicago, IL |
| 31 | Murphy Clement | RB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Martinsburg, WV |
| 0 | Nas Rankin | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Chicago, IL |
| 1 | Jayshon Platt | WR | SR | 6'1" | 185 | North Port, FL |
| 3 | Kenyon Alston | WR | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Orlando, FL |
| 6 | Jershaun Newton | WR | FR | 6'0" | 215 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 8 | Davon Grant | WR | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Dekalb, IL |
| 9 | Alex Perry | WR | SR | 6'5" | 210 | Port Charlotte, FL |
| 10 | Ty Robinson | WR | SR | 6'4" | 200 | Aurora, CO |
| 11 | Brayden Trimble | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Decatur, IL |
| 13 | Hudson Clement | WR | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Martinsburg, WV |
| 17 | Collin Dixon | WR | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Tallmadge, OH |
| 19 | Nate Cichy | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Mount Prospect, IL |
| 28 | Karson Kaiser | WR | SO | 6'1" | 170 | Weston, FL |
| 80 | Eddie Kasper | WR | SR | 5'10" | 165 | Burlington, WI |
| 81 | Leslie Mosley Jr. | WR | FR | 5'10" | 160 | Belle Glade, FL |
| 82 | Jacob Harvey | WR | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Mount Zion, IL |
| 14 | Maurice Smith Jr. | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 16 | Logan Farrell | TE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Arlington Heights, IL |
| 83 | Kaden Feagin | TE | SR | 6'3" | 260 | Atwood, IL |
| 84 | Grant Smith | TE | FR | 6'5" | 230 | Forsyth, IL |
| 85 | Will Vala III | TE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Downers Grove, IL |
| 86 | Christian Abney | TE | SR | 6'6" | 255 | Zionsville, IN |
| 87 | BJ Thurman | TE | SO | 6'4" | 225 | Berkeley, CA |
| 88 | Davin Stoffel | TE | JR | 6'6" | 260 | Mosinee, WI |
| 89 | Tanner Hollinger | TE | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Stromsburg, NE |
| 51 | Alfred Washington | OL | JR | 6'7" | 315 | Pensacola, FL |
| 52 | Champ Smith | OL | FR | 6'6" | 330 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 53 | Kai Pritchard | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Little Egg Harbor T, NJ |
| 54 | Griffin Rousseau | OL | FR | 6'7" | 325 | Stoughton, WI |
| 55 | TJ McMillen | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Naperville, IL |
| 56 | JJ Hirdes | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Coopersville, MI |
| 57 | Zach Barrett | OL | SO | 6'3" | 295 | Orland Park, IL |
| 58 | Landen Von Seggern | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Omaha, NE |
| 59 | Jake Renfro | OL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Mokena, IL |
| 62 | Casey Thomann | OL | FR | 6'8" | 325 | Olney, IL |
| 65 | Dezmond Schuster | OL | SR | 6'5" | 335 | Gonzales, LA |
| 66 | Brandon Hansen | OL | JR | 6'6" | 330 | Mundelein, IL |
| 68 | Michael McDonough | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Tinley Park, IL |
| 70 | Maika Matelau | OL | SO | 6'3" | 300 | Upland, CA |
| 71 | Nathan Knapik | OL | SO | 6'7" | 300 | Kennewick, WA |
| 72 | Christian Martin | OL | JR | 6'7" | 300 | Saint Rose, LA |
| 74 | Zafir Stewart | OL | SO | 6'6" | 350 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 75 | Brandon Henderson | OL | SR | 6'5" | 335 | East Saint Louis, IL |
| 76 | Dylan Frechette | OL | FR | 6'6" | 345 | Central Falls, RI |
| 78 | Eddie Tuerk | OL | SO | 6'4" | 320 | La Grange, IL |
| 79 | TJ Taylor | OL | JR | 6'5" | 340 | Santa Clarita, CA |
| 15 | Kingston Shaw | DL | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Apopka, FL |
| 17 | Isaiah Thomison | DL | JR | 6'3" | 285 | Fayetteville, TN |
| 43 | Joe Barna | DL | JR | 6'4" | 265 | Wheaton, IL |
| 51 | Parker Crim | DL | FR | 6'3" | 255 | Lima, OH |
| 52 | Pat Farrell | DL | JR | 6'5" | 285 | Oak Lawn, IL |
| 54 | Demetrius John | DL | SO | 6'3" | 290 | Columbus, OH |
| 55 | Tony Balanganayi | DL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Palatine, IL |
| 56 | Guillermo Gallardo | DL | SR | 6'3" | 320 | Bloomington, IL |
| 90 | Carter Janki | DL | SR | 6'5" | 295 | Redding, CT |
| 91 | Cameron Brooks | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Chicago, IL |
| 92 | Deon Williams | DL | SO | 6'2" | 270 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 93 | Ean Rhea | DL | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Glade Spring, VA |
| 94 | Connor Sullivan | DL | FR | 6'4" | 290 | Glenview, IL |
| 95 | Isaiah White | DL | FR | 6'2" | 335 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 96 | Darrell Prater | DL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Fort Payne, AL |
| 98 | Joshua Davis | DL | SO | 6'3" | 275 | Mendenhall, MS |
| 99 | King Liggins | DL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Crete, IL |
| 4 | Daniel Brown | LB | SR | 6'1" | 255 | Kansas City, KS |
| 8 | Cameron Thomas | LB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 10 | James Kreutz | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Bannockburn, IL |
| 11 | Jacob Alexander | LB | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Frankfort, IL |
| 18 | Mason Muragin | LB | JR | 6'4" | 250 | Macomb, MI |
| 23 | Jaylen Stewart | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Houston, TX |
| 24 | Will Holmes | LB | JR | 6'4" | 255 | Detroit, MI |
| 26 | Ismael Kante | LB | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Brooklyn Park, MN |
| 28 | Kayden Bennett | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Windsor, CT |
| 30 | Tony Williams | LB | FR | 5'11" | 225 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 33 | Grant Beerman | LB | SO | 6'5" | 235 | West Chester, OH |
| 34 | Erik Gayle | LB | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 38 | Jack Paris | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | River Forest, IL |
| 45 | Robert Edmonson | LB | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Houston, TX |
| 48 | Carter Smith | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Rolling Meadows, IL |
| 0 | Mac Resetich | DB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Spring Valley, IL |
| 1 | Xavier Scott | DB | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Riviera Beach, FL |
| 2 | RJ Jones III | DB | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 3 | Nick Hankins Jr. | DB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Belleville, IL |
| 5 | Jakwon Morris | DB | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Tupelo, MS |
| 6 | Juice Clarke | DB | SR | 6'1" | 180 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 7 | Matthew Bailey | DB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Moline, IL |
| 9 | Lavon Williams | DB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | San Antonio, TX |
| 12 | Isaiah Williams | DB | FR | 6'2" | 200 | Houston, TX |
| 13 | Xanai Scott | DB | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Riviera Beach, FL |
| 14 | Andre Lovett Jr. | DB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Blue Island, IL |
| 16 | Tanner Heckel | DB | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Lyndon, KS |
| 19 | Jacob Eberhart | DB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | St. Louis, MO |
| 20 | Almirian Thomas | DB | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 21 | Ben Clawson | DB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Arlington Heights, IL |
| 22 | Deuce Fillmore | DB | SR | 5'11" | 185 | Biloxi, MS |
| 25 | Des Straughton | DB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Detroit, MI |
| 29 | James Finley IV | DB | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Portage, IN |
| 32 | Tywan Cox | DB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Miami, FL |
| 35 | Kaedyn Cobbs | DB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Denton, TX |
| 37 | Caden Considine | DB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Byron, IL |
| 27 | Lucas Osada | PK | SO | 6'1" | 195 | Charlottesville, VA |
| 37 | Ethan Moczulski | PK | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Spokane, WA |
| 18 | Jack Gray | P | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Adelaide, SA |
| 81 | Lars Rau | P | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Novato, CA |
| 44 | Patrick Mahoney III | LS | JR | 6'2" | 215 | Northbrook, IL |
| 49 | Zach Haber | LS | JR | 5'10" | 220 | Durango, CO |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Illinois is in year 6 under Bret Bielema, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 21st on first and second down. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Illinois has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensefirst and second down#21projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#26projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.93#85
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.79 / 0.93
- Power / stuff (off)
- 63.6% / 13.8%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 12.5%#108
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.4% / 5.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.23#36 | 0.45#33 | 0.19#115 |
| Defense | 0.06#97 | 0.28#101 | 0.62#102 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.5386th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1434th
- Offense success rate57%82nd
- Defense success rate allowed43%29th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs54%65th
- Offense success — passing downs67%98th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs44%43rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs40%16th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.475th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.246th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.390th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.624th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.042nd
- Defense line yards allowed3.318th
- Offense highlight yards2.180th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.4660th
- Offense power success0.6029th
- Defense power success allowed0.7548th
- Offense stuff rate0.2320th
- Defense stuff rate0.1319th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%66th
- Third down distance faced3.099th
- Third down conversion allowed53%16th
- Third down distance forced6.631st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1047th
- Net success rate — second half0.1054th
Roster
- Returning usage44%50th
- Returning EPA83.542nd
- Team talent composite70464th
- Recruiting class rank24.083rd
- Recruiting class points23083rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.558 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 41.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 38.6%
- Over expected
- +2.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +28
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Illinois is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Illinois in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 5-4 | 69% | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 6-3 | 77% | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 8-5 | 5-4 | 62% | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 42% | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 2020 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 4-5 | 46% | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 33% | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 2-10 | 0-9 | 17% | 2.1 | -0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.6-5.4. Wins the Big Ten in 0.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.
down 4.5 points since preseason — won 42-23 over UAB against an expected margin of +30, so −11.3 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 52% where the average Big Ten team is 72%.
- The Big Ten takes 3.19 bids in an average season, and four or more in 37%.
Illinois’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Ohio State21.0
- wk8vs Oregon13.8
- wk12vs Iowa8.7
- wk11at UCLA8.1
- wk10vs Nebraska6.9
- wk13at Northwestern6.6
Who to root for
Games Illinois is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk12Michigan State over Oregon1.0
- wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon1.0
- wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech0.9
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State0.9
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.9
- wk2Georgia Tech over Tennessee0.8
Big Ten
0-0 in league play, projected 4.0-5.011 of 18 by title oddsThe Big Ten sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 50% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4Illinois at Ohio State4.7
- wk8Oregon at Illinois2.2
- wk12Iowa at Illinois1.2
- wk11Illinois at UCLA1.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big Ten race →
If not the playoff, then
Illinois is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl8.1%
- Rate Bowl8.0%
- LA Bowl7.8%
- Pinstripe Bowl7.5%
- Las Vegas Bowl6.7%
- Music City Bowl5.6%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Illinois a player since 2010 — 27 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Illinois's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.