#12Sam Mbake

WR·App State·2025

Sam Mbake is a Slot Specialist WR for App State. Sam's 2025 season produced 7.2 total EPA across 36 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Mbake's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

24 Receptions207 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume22
Explosiveness11
Consistency59
Pass-Down91

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.62 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.51 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Coastal Carolina (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
7	@Georgia State	W41-20	-24.5	2	31	15.5	0	24	0.65
8	vsCoastal Carolina	L37-45	-15.1	1	13	13.0	0	13	1.51
11	vsGeorgia Southern	L23-25	-9.4	3	29	9.7	0	12	0.13
12	@James Madison	L10-58	12.3	1	11	11.0	0	11	-0.15
13	vsMarshall	W26-24	-4.5	7	39	5.6	0	13	0.13
14	vsArkansas State	L29-30	-8.8	9	68	7.6	1	17	0.16
20	vsGeorgia Southern	L10-29	-9.4	1	16	16.0	0	16	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.7%

Passing plays

14.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.3%

Passing downs

10.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).