#20Rashaad Penny

RB·San Diego State·2017 20162.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Rashaad Penny is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for San Diego State. Rashaad's 2016 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 140 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rashaad Penny's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1005 Rush yards11 Rush TD135 Carries7.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions224 Rec yards3 Rec TD14.9 Yards/rec

Returns

20 Kick returns624 KR yards2 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume49
Explosiveness88
Consistency47
Receiving79

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.23 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs San José State (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Hampshire	W31-0	—	9	33	3.7	1	—	—	—	-0.61
2	vsCalifornia	W45-40	2.4	8	28	3.5	0	1	25	1	0.43
3	@Northern Illinois	W42-28	-2.4	14	65	4.6	0	2	37	1	0.42
5	@South Alabama	L24-42	-9.4	9	62	6.9	1	—	—	—	0.44
6	vsUNLV	W26-7	-14.3	14	110	7.9	1	2	50	1	0.69
7	@Fresno State	W17-3	-16.9	15	49	3.3	0	1	5	0	-0.17
8	vsSan José State	W42-3	-13.6	9	105	11.7	3	2	64	0	1.23
9	@Utah State	W40-13	-4.4	5	16	3.2	0	1	0	0	-0.09
10	vsHawai'i	W55-0	-10.1	8	108	13.5	1	—	—	—	0.76
11	@Nevada	W46-16	-13.0	10	208	20.8	2	2	20	0	0.83
12	@Wyoming	L33-34	-6.9	5	79	15.8	0	—	—	—	0.39
13	vsColorado State	L31-63	0.8	4	15	3.8	0	1	6	0	-0.16
14	@Wyoming	W27-24	-6.9	16	117	7.3	2	2	13	0	0.64
1	vsHouston	W34-10	10.1	9	10	1.1	0	1	4	0	-0.61

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.2%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

22.2%

Standard downs

17.9%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.43
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.85 / 0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	San Diego State	2.9	0.450	—	60.8
2017	San Diego State	7.7	0.470	+0.02	138.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.